Drones cost a pretty penny – Newspaper Kommersant No. 58 (7503) dated 04/05/2023

As Kommersant found out, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has determined the parameters of a civil state order for unmanned vehicles. Until 2030, the volume of demand of government agencies and state-owned companies is estimated at 200 billion rubles, of which 100 billion rubles – until 2026. VEB.RF, which is going to engage in drone leasing, estimates the total market size by 2026 at 500 billion rubles. Manufacturers look at the prospect of government orders with hope, hoping to reduce the cost of products through mass production, subject to the removal of regulatory barriers. But a number of Kommersant sources fear that support measures – preferential leasing, discounts for buyers and tenants – will not receive budget funding.

As it became known to Kommersant, the Ministry of Industry and Trade estimates the volume of the state order for aerial drones at 100 billion rubles. for 2023–2026 (8.6 billion rubles in 2023, 49.6 billion rubles in 2024–2025 and 42.1 billion rubles in 2026), including 36 billion rubles— from government agencies. These figures are enshrined in a document approved by the protocol following the meetings chaired by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrey Belousov. The Ministry of Industry and Trade confirmed the approval of the protocol to Kommersant. Now, in the budget for 2023-2025, a total of 18.8 billion rubles has been allocated for public procurement of drones.

In general, until 2030, demand is estimated at 200 billion rubles. (of which 79 billion rubles – from state-owned companies), including 145 billion rubles – only for the devices themselves, excluding the sale of services. It is assumed that the volume of purchases will be approved in the autumn when the budget for 2024-2026 is formed and is fixed in the passport of the national project on drones, clarified Kommersant’s sources in the government.

From subsidies to regulation

According to Kommersant, information on consolidated demand by industry was provided by the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Energy, the Ministry of Construction, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Emergency Situations, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Education and Science and the Russian Guard. Among the companies with state participation, Gazprom Neft, Gazprom, Rosneft, Russian Railways, Transneft and Russian Post appear among the customers.

“In physical terms, federal executive authorities and state-owned companies claim 480,000 pieces of equipment until 2030,” the Ministry of Industry and Trade added.

Kommersant’s sources in the ministry specify that by 2026 we are talking about 250 thousand units, 90% of the volume will be light and medium vehicles (up to 30 kg).

In the heavy segment, demand for 500 helicopters and more than 160 multirotors has been confirmed. At what cost the parameters were calculated is unknown.

Vladimir Pastukhov, General Director of the ANO Agency for Technological Development (who collected analytics), noted that averaging is “hardly possible”, but, according to expert estimates, the cost of heavy helicopters is about 100 million rubles. a piece. According to another Kommersant source, light professional drones cost from 300 thousand rubles, heavy – 20-30 million rubles. “The idea of ​​the state order is that in two or three years, domestic producers will equalize in prices and become absolutely competitive with foreign colleagues due to entering serial production,” he added.

The authorities plan to introduce subsidies for the leasing, operation and support of drone servo centers, but their amount is not yet clear.

According to Kommersant’s sources in the industry, if the state order is “confirmed and budgeted” for 100 billion rubles, then 30-50 billion rubles will be required for support measures.

Discounts are more interesting for small and medium-sized businesses, believes Vladimir Pastukhov. “At the first stage, we expect that, thanks to compensations, BAS manufacturers will be able to provide a discount to customers in the amount of up to 50%, but not more than 1 million rubles. drone,” he said. Large business, according to Mr. Pastukhov, is more interested in purchasing the services provided with the help of BAS than the technology itself, and will be able to claim discounts.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade confirmed to Kommersant that among the possible areas of state support, “subsidizing part of the cost of an unmanned aircraft flight hour is being discussed.” “A variant of its application to operators who implement long-term significant projects is being considered,” the ministry said. Selection criteria have not yet been established. Mechanisms for preferential leasing are also being worked out. In addition, a large block of support for the industry will be associated with simplification of regulation, the Ministry of Industry and Trade specified: this, for example, is the allocation of necessary frequencies, the withdrawal of UAS operators from the gray zone, a reduction in the cost of certification, as well as the training of qualified personnel.

Leasing rate

According to STLC, which plans to lease drones, the total demand for UAS and related services in 2023-2026 may reach about 120 billion rubles, and by 2030 it will exceed 215 billion rubles. STLC suggested creating a “qualified customer institute”: “The company sees itself in this role, and now we are developing all the necessary competencies, our task is to consolidate demand, stimulate production and localize drones.”

Leasing and rent, according to STLC, “in the short term will be more attractive to customers than buying from a manufacturer.” The company plans to offer equipment both for financial leasing and for rent, as well as provide services using UAVs from its own operator, BAS LLC.

VEB.RF, with reference to joint calculations with ANO NTI Platform and STLC, indicate that the volume of the civil drone market in the Russian Federation on the horizon up to 2026 can reach up to 500 billion rubles. “subject to incentives from the state.”

Financial leasing seems to be the most appropriate for heavy equipment with a long service life, while light educational or monitoring vehicles are more likely to be simply bought by operators, VEB.RF specified.

Liberalization is going hard

In 2021, about 2.5 thousand drones were produced in Russia, in 2022 – more than 5 thousand, mainly equipment in the light segment (multirotors).

UAVs from 30 kg are subject to certification, which are being developed in the Russian Federation by Mil and Kamov, Radar MMS, Aeromax (part of AFK Sistema), UZGA and Agrimax.Aero. Only one is certified by the Federal Air Transport Agency – the BAS-200 of Russian Helicopters. The interlocutors of Kommersant on the market estimate the cost of the process at several hundred million rubles.

A number of Kommersant’s sources fear that if state support mechanisms “lag behind the needs of the market” and problems with certification are not resolved, “the state order will go to Chinese suppliers.”

The Federal Air Transport Agency and the Ministry of Transport did not answer Kommersant. A government source said that work on “regulation liberalization is underway, but hard.”

If we talk about the replacement of such manufacturers as the Chinese giant DJI, then the declared 480 thousand copies look quite realistic, Nikolai Burdin, commercial director of Aeromax, objected. With the departure of DJI from the Russian Federation, which produced the bulk of copters with a take-off weight of up to 30 kg, a fairly large niche was vacated in agriculture, aerial photography of construction, forestry, infrastructure and other facilities where demand is high.

Mr. Burdin stressed that manufacturers need additional state support. Aeromax plans to produce about 2,500 civilian drones by 2030, “but much will depend on the demand for equipment,” he added.

Geoscan expects to produce more than 100,000 drones by 2030, the company’s CEO Alexei Yuretsky told Kommersant: “The main goal is to enter the production of large series, including in order to reduce the cost of final products for the customer.”

Having a confirmed order from the state, BAS manufacturers can reduce costs for sales to the market, adds Maxim Chizhov, CEO of Agrimax.Aero. For manufacturers, guaranteed purchases of several years are an opportunity to build their plans in the long term, agrees Nikolai Ryashin, market expert at NTI Aeronet.

The Unmanned Systems Group (FINCO) added that the development of the industry as a whole could be hindered by a lack of qualified personnel in the field of development and IT, as well as a lack of new technologies, difficulties with the logistics of foreign components and electronics. “Traditional problems associated with the need to pre-coordinate flight routes remain, which complicates the operational implementation of work,” they say. Another fear of experts is that the program may lock drone manufacturers exclusively to government orders.

Aigul Abdullina