Don’t go to ships, go there – Newspaper Kommersant No. 197 (7398) dated 10/24/2022

Sanctions and restrictions against the Russian Federation have seriously rebuilt maritime transportation. Russian ship calls to EU ports fell tenfold in the third quarter, while US and UK ports stopped completely half a year ago. At the same time, communication with new main trading partners is activated: ship calls to Turkish ports have increased sharply, exceeding 1,000, and the frequency of calls to China has increased by 17%. According to experts, ship calls to EU ports will continue to decline, especially under the influence of the eighth EU sanctions package and the oil price ceiling, but the importance of the ports of Turkey, China, India and Africa will increase.

According to Lloyd`s List Intelligence, in the third quarter, the number of calls by Russian-flagged ships to EU ports was 107 compared to 1,042 in the third quarter of 2021. Of the 27 countries of the bloc, Russian ships called only at the ports of nine countries, the record holders are Bulgaria (39) and Germany (24), but even there a decrease was recorded compared to the third quarter of 2021 by 40.9% and 45.5%, respectively. Ship calls to the ports of the USA and Great Britain have not been registered since the introduction of the relevant sanctions.

The number of calls by Russian ships to the ports of “friendly” countries is growing. So, in the ports of Turkey they increased by 44.6%, up to 1116, in the ports of China – by 17%, up to 391 calls.

On March 1, Great Britain and Canada banned the entry of Russian-flagged ships into their ports, and the United States did the same on April 28. As part of the fifth package of sanctions, the EU banned ships flying the Russian flag from entering its ports from April 16, and from July 29 the ban was extended to locks. But entry is allowed for the import of a number of goods: humanitarian, pharmaceutical, titanium, aluminum, copper, nickel, palladium, iron ore, a number of types of chemical and metallurgical products, coal (until August 10), as well as for energy goods. Oil tankers were allowed to enter EU ports when securing short-term deals or contracts concluded before June 4, as well as for the delivery of non-Russian oil and oil products. But from August 10, an embargo on Russian coal was introduced, and from December 5, an embargo on oil comes into force.

Shipping is also seriously affected by the ban on insurance and reinsurance of Russian ships. Insurance has already been lost by Sovcomflot, which fell under sanctions. After December 5, insurance and reinsurance in the EU of ships with Russian oil bound for third countries, regardless of their flag, will be impossible, unless there is evidence that the oil was bought at a price below the ceiling.

Now Russian tankers are insured by domestic companies, in particular, Ingosstrakh insured the vessels of Sovcomflot, and in June it became known that the Russian National Reinsurance Company became the reinsurer of Russian sea vessels. Initially, the insurance ban also applied to ships carrying Russian coal and fertilizers, but in September the EU allowed the transportation to third countries and provide financial support for the transportation of coal, fertilizers, a number of hydrocarbons, livestock feed, timber and cement.

According to Mikhail Burmistrov, head of Infoline-Analytics, by the second quarter of 2023, when the embargo on oil products comes into force, ship calls to the EU will drop to almost zero. Tracking the movement of the fleet will be more difficult: a “shadow fleet” is being formed according to the model of transporting Iranian and Venezuelan oil, but in any case, these will not be ship calls to the EU. To increase the flow of goods, the expert believes, Russia will go to Turkey, India, China, coal will also go to African countries. The flows of oil and oil products will be redirected to the Middle East, with which pseudo-swap transactions will be carried out, when the country buys Russian raw materials and oil products at a discount, and exports its own production.

IPEM expert analyst Svetlana Petrova notes that one of the points of the eighth package of EU sanctions against Russia was a ban on all operations with the Russian Maritime Register of Shipping (RS). RS has prepared clarifications according to which, from April 8, 2023, a vessel holding RS documents, regardless of flag, may be allowed to enter EU ports by national competent authorities for the purchase, transfer or import of certain goods. “Against the backdrop of the eighth package, it is expected to reduce the calls of ships under the Russian flag of registration and certified RS,” she says. expected”.

According to Ms. Petrova, there will be increased interest in transshipment hubs (Turkey and China), where cargo will be delivered by Russian ships, reloaded onto ships under other flags and delivered to European ports. The dropping volumes of transportation of energy carriers to the EU can be transferred from the Baltic basin to the Black Sea, the African direction and Latin America will develop more actively. The expert believes that in order to intensify maritime trade between the Russian Federation and friendly countries with a decrease in the merchant fleet (due to the impossibility of chartering and possible additional sanctions for the Russian flag), a variant is possible in which the “friendly” country will charter the ship, and the Russian one, in turn , give way in price when selling your cargo.

Natalya Skorlygina