Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for September 29-30 – Finance – Kommersant
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The American currency is losing ground on the Russian foreign exchange market. As a result of today’s trading, the dollar rate amounted to 57.54 rubles / $, which is 44 kopecks. below Friday’s closing values and 1.7 rubles. below the local maximum reached on Monday. Currency sales are coming from both companies and private investors who are leaving “toxic” assets amid increased fears of new sanctions against Russian financial institutions.
;
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| Bank Zenith | 54.00-60.00 |
| Expobank | 56.00-58.50 |
| Russian Standard Bank | 55.00-60.00 |
| BCS World of Investments | 57.00-61.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 57.69 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
The ruble remains resilient to complex geopolitics
Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar by the end of this week is 57–60 rubles/$. The ruble remains resilient to complex geopolitics, overall market risk appetite and oil price fluctuations. The stability of the Russian currency is provided by the effect of a significant current account surplus and the pressure of foreign currency sellers, which has increased due to the possible sanctions risk for owners of non-cash dollars and euros. At the same time, the peak of the tax period remains behind, which in the short term allows us to count on the return of the dollar-ruble pair to the region of 60 rubles/$.
The current recovery on domestic markets looks like a temporary one due to a high degree of uncertainty
The end of the tax period may lead to a slight correction of the ruble. The global strengthening of the dollar makes most currencies weak, but the ruble does not react to this trend due to capital controls. The focus is on the reaction of the markets to the geopolitical background and potential restrictions that could change the structure of the domestic foreign exchange market. The current recovery on domestic markets looks like a temporary one due to a high degree of uncertainty. Nevertheless, the exchange rates of the ruble look attractive for buying the currencies of friendly countries.
Meanwhile, global oil prices are on the rise
The Russian ruble still feels quite confident and manages without sharp fluctuations. However, expect its further strengthening to the level of 50 rubles. Still not worth the dollar. Such a course would be extremely unprofitable for the budget. As a positive factor in the foreign exchange market, there were news about the prospects for a slight easing of sanctions by Europe. The European currency shows a decline against the dollar. At the same time, expectations of another rate hike by the US Federal Reserve are capable of supporting the US currency. The Chinese yuan, in which interest has grown significantly in recent months and whose trajectory is closely watched by investors, shows a weakening of its positions. Meanwhile, world oil prices are on the rise. It is very difficult to build clear forecasts on the movement of exchange rates today.
The dollar may attempt to recover amid technical oversold
The dollar exchange rate has gone beyond the lower limit of the usual monthly range of 59-61 rubles. For the most part, pressure on the dollar positions was exerted by exporters, as well as panic caused by the possible imminent imposition of sanctions on the NCC, which may affect the stoppage of dollar trading. This week, the dollar shows sideways movement: the participants are waiting for the sanctions decisions of Western countries. We believe that locally the dollar-ruble pair may attempt to recover amid technical oversold conditions, however, sanctions and geopolitical risks may intensify the sale of dollars and bring the dollar below 57 rubles. It is quite possible that with the severity of sanctions against the NCC, trading participants may face a fundamental change in the picture of trading on the currency section of the Moscow Exchange.
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