Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for September 25–29
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The ruble ended last week strengthening its position against the world’s leading currencies. At the end of Friday’s trading, the US dollar exchange rate was 96.25 rubles/$, which is almost 55 kopecks. below the closing value of the previous week. This is facilitated by the increased demand for currency from exporters, as well as increased verbal interventions from financial authorities.
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (RUB/$) |
|---|---|
| Bank Zenit | 95.00 |
| PSB | 95.00-96.50 |
| “BCS World of Investments” | 94.00-97.00 |
| Russian Standard Bank | 95.00-97.00 |
| Expobank | 95.00-97.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 95.65 |
* Consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic average of analysts’ forecasts
In favor of the Russian currency – and the recovery of oil prices
The ruble is showing strengthening. It is supported by export duties, news about the launch of currency control measures as part of curbing capital outflow, and an increase in the volume of foreign currency sales by the regulator as part of the investment of funds from the National Welfare Fund. In favor of the Russian currency is the recovery of oil prices against the backdrop of an increased supply of foreign currency from the regulator. Traditionally, the approaching peak of tax payments will also play a positive role in supporting the ruble exchange rate in the coming week. The focus is on the US Federal Reserve keeping its base interest rate unchanged amid reports of increased economic activity, which was expected by most market participants.
Until the end of September, the national currency may receive support from the tax period
Our forecast for the ruble/dollar exchange rate for next week is 94–97. Until the end of September, the national currency may receive support from the tax period. At the same time, sales of foreign currency by the Central Bank, the daily volume of which in the outgoing week was almost ten times higher than the standard for the regulator, did not have a noticeable impact on the exchange rate dynamics of the ruble. This indicates continued increased demand for foreign money, as well as the likelihood of a moderate weakening of the national currency after passing through the peak of the tax period (September 28). A factor supporting the Russian currency are oil prices, which have once again set their sights on the level of $95 per barrel Brent.
In the second half of the week, the ruble may support the tax period factor
The pressure on the ruble is gradually decreasing. High oil prices that have been established since the beginning of August are beginning to provide support. Verbal interventions by the authorities on the topic of considering measures to tighten foreign exchange controls and the introduction of export duties depending on the level of exchange rates have a positive impact on the value of the Russian currency. In the second half of the week, the ruble may support the tax period factor. The volume of basic taxes paid in September is estimated at 2.85 trillion rubles, which is 15% more than similar payments last month.
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