Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for October 13-14 – Finance – Kommersant

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

In support of the ruble plays the suspension of the strengthening of the dollar on world markets

The ruble slows down the rate of weakening, which indicates the stabilization of the situation in the foreign exchange market. The ruble is supported by the suspension of the dollar strengthening on world markets, as well as relatively high oil prices, including in the ruble equivalent of the cost of a barrel. In the second half of October, there will be a traditional activation of exporters within the tax period. According to Zenit Bank, the volume of October payments on five main taxes will amount to 2.7 trillion rubles, which is 12% more than in September. The short-term dynamics of the Russian currency will be largely determined by the geopolitical factor, while the most likely range for the dollar is the range of 63-65 rubles / $.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

Market participants are concerned about the prospects for introducing a cap on oil prices

The Russian ruble is declining amid high demand for the US currency. At the same time, the activity of exporters in sales of foreign currency can restrain its further growth. In the center of world attention is the September producer price index in the US. The very ambiguous geopolitical situation continues to exert significant pressure on exchange rates. Market participants are concerned about the prospects for introducing a cap on oil prices, the active discussion of which does not subside. In the world, oil prices continue to decline, which is facilitated by the expectation of a decrease in demand. Meanwhile, the market’s attention is riveted to another event that could affect the balance of power in the foreign exchange market – a package of measures from the European Commission in the framework of reducing demand for electricity and curbing the growth of gas prices.

We do not plan further sharp weakening of the national currency yet

The ruble this week showed a significant decline against the dollar and reached the level of 63 rubles / $ indicated by us. coming close to 65 rubles/$. Note that the rate of ruble depreciation was more significant than expected. Against this background, by the end of the week we are shifting the forecasted trading range to 62–65 rubles/$. We do not plan further sharp weakening of the national currency yet. Rather, we are waiting for a return to the lower border of 62 rubles / $. Of the important events before the end of the week, we single out the publication of the minutes of the previous meeting of the US Federal Reserve. It is likely that the reaction of the markets will be volatile with the strengthening of the dollar and then its weakening upon the fact of the event.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

On the side of the ruble – high oil prices

Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar by the end of the week is 62–66 rubles/$. On the side of the ruble are high oil prices, some stabilization of the emotional background associated with geopolitics, and a local positive on the ruble debt market. On the other side of the scale, which outweighs this week, there is still a high supply of foreign currency from exporters, a slow recovery in imports, as well as a decrease in threats of blocking operations with toxic currencies, which significantly reduced pressure from sellers of US and European currencies. Targets in the area of ​​65–66 rubles/$ may be tested in the coming sessions, but next week companies will start preparing for the tax period, and the dollar may again roll back to the area of ​​60–62 rubles/$.

We do not see significant reasons for a new wave of ruble weakening

On Wednesday, the dollar during trading was close to 65 rubles, the euro tested the level of 64 rubles, both currencies updated their highs since July. But by the middle of the day, both currencies retreated from intraday peaks against the backdrop of a noticeable increase in trading volumes, reflecting an increase in the supply of currency from both exporters and speculative participants, fixing positions due to the formed overheating. By the end of the day, volatility in the currency swap market also began to decrease, indicating the normalization of demand for Western currencies. As a result, by the evening of October 12, the dollar returned to 64 rubles, and the euro to 62.5 rubles. Now we do not see significant reasons for a new wave of ruble weakening. We expect that the dollar exchange rate in the near future will remain in the range of 62-65 rubles, and the euro – in the zone of 60-63 rubles.