Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for November 7-11 – Finance – Kommersant
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Pressure on the ruble exchange rates comes from the domestic debt market
During the end of the tax period, the ruble is supported to a lesser extent by export currency flows for sale. Nevertheless, high oil prices, including Russian oil, provide fundamental support to the ruble. The global strengthening of the dollar on the signals of the US Federal Reserve to increase the base interest rate to a higher level is negative for the oil market, and hence for the Russian currency. Pressure on the ruble exchange rates also comes from the domestic debt market, where an unexpectedly “generous” auction of the Ministry of Finance launched a repricing of the OFZ secondary market. It is most likely that the ruble will continue its moderate weakening until the start of the new tax period in mid-November.
The strengthening of the US currency took place against the backdrop of tough rhetoric from the Fed
The dollar ends the week at the level of 62 rubles, gradually rising in price due to reduced trading activity. Dollar trading volumes fell to $1.1 billion due to the start of the month factor. The strengthening of the American currency took place against the backdrop of tough rhetoric from the Fed at a meeting on Wednesday, which led to an increase in its rate in the world. Additional pressure on the position of the ruble was exerted by weak statistics on retail sales in Russia, as well as the acceleration of the decline in Russian GDP. The key event next week will be US inflation statistics. We believe that the statistics will come out worse than expected, which is why we expect the US currency to strengthen.
The resumption of Russia’s participation in the grain deal plays in favor of the ruble
The dollar showed increased volatility against most currencies after raising the rate following the US Federal Reserve meeting with the ambiguous rhetoric of the head of the regulator. The Fed raised the rate by 75 basis points, as investors had expected, pointing to a high probability of a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes in the future. The resumption of Russia’s participation in the grain deal plays in favor of the ruble, but at the same time, the completion of the tax period is against the national currency. In a short week, there was a slow increase in oil prices, which was facilitated by information about another fall in oil inventories in the US. But this did not significantly affect the ruble, as forecasts for the energy market remain uncertain amid ongoing concerns about a slowdown in the global economy.
Reduction of exports and simultaneous restoration of imports
Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar for the next week is 60.5-63.5 rubles. On the one hand, the dollar showed a local rise in the world market after the Fed meeting, while risk assets, including commodities, came under pressure. On the other hand, fluctuations in external sentiment have not been decisive for the ruble for a long time, and the same oil is quite confidently holding above $90, relying, among other things, on the consistent OPEC+ policy on production quotas. A shift in the dollar exchange rate to 64–65 rubles/$ in the November perspective may be observed against the backdrop of a reduction in exports due to sanctions and a simultaneous recovery in imports.
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