Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for May 2–5

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

Russian oil prices are falling, which does not add confidence to the ruble

Friday’s strengthening of the ruble looks temporary and was probably related to payments within the tax period. Judging by the results of the meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the regulator’s reaction to the movement of the ruble is rather neutral, the policy of free floating of the national currency remains a priority. Prices for Russian oil, as well as for benchmark world grades, are declining, which does not add confidence to the ruble. Thus, the ruble has not gained fundamental attractiveness, which also confirms the deterioration of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation in the updated medium-term forecast of the Central Bank.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

Volatility to remain high early next week

In the second half of the week, until Friday, the Russian currency was trading near the level of 81 rubles/$. On Friday, after several weeks of low volatility, it began to sharply strengthen and returned to a level near 80 rubles / $. The reason for the strengthening of the ruble was the meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, following which the rate remained at the level of 7.5%. The regulator also noted that it is possible to tighten monetary policy at the next meeting, which gave an additional impetus to strengthen the domestic currency. We believe that its volatility at the beginning of next week after Friday will remain at a high level, and we expect the Russian currency to trade in a wide range of 77-82 RUR/$.

Egor Zhilnikov,
chief analyst

In the medium term, the decline is likely to be offset and the value of the dollar will rise

The national currency was supported by the results of the Central Bank meeting, which confirmed an increase in economic activity in the country and an improvement in GDP forecasts. An additional contribution was made by exporters against the backdrop of the end of tax payments, in addition, on Friday, the quarterly AIT (tax on added income) is paid in an increased amount. In the medium term, the decline is likely to be offset and the value of the dollar will rise above 80 rubles.

Investors will be watching US unemployment data next week

Until the end of next week, we forecast trading in the range of 79–81 rubles/$. At the same time, we can expect a decrease in volatility and trading activity after a sharp Friday movement associated with the decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the key rate. Market participants may re-evaluate the medium-term forecast of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on further dynamics of inflation, GDP and the range of the key rate. Next week, investors will watch the data on US unemployment, consumer price index in the Eurozone and wait for the decision of the ECB on the interest rate. In general, the week between the May holidays may be characterized by reduced activity of bidders.