Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for March 25–29

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

Currency control measures and regulator intervention complement the complex of factors supporting the ruble

Our forecast for the ruble to dollar exchange rate for next week is 91–93 rubles. The currency pair may gravitate towards the lower limit of the range. The tax period may provide local support; its peak will be on the 25th and 28th. The Bank of Russia on Friday kept the key rate unchanged at 16%, thus continuing the period of tight monetary policy, which is favorable for the national currency. Currency control measures and regulator interventions complement the complex of factors supporting the ruble. High budget expenditures, pressure on export revenues, a rising global dollar and a difficult geopolitical backdrop are playing against the ruble.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of the Financial Markets Operations Department

The import-export balance and geopolitical factors have a greater influence

The coming week is an active period of tax payments, which can support the current exchange rate of the Russian ruble. Favorable factors include relatively high oil prices, as well as the continuation of the policy of strict monetary policy. Friday’s decision by the Russian regulator to leave the key rate the same coincided with the market consensus forecast. Despite the first signs of easing inflation, the accumulated statistics are not yet sufficient to talk about its sustainable decline. At the same time, such a decision of the Central Bank is already included in the exchange rate of the national currency, so the ruble did not respond to it with any significant movement. The import-export balance and geopolitical factors have an incomparably greater impact on the national currency.

Current levels already look justified from an economic and market point of view

The dollar exchange rate continues the consolidation phase under the important resistance zone of 93.0–93.5 rubles. Against the backdrop of weakening sales of foreign exchange earnings by exporters, the dollar on Friday regained the losses of recent days: demand for the currency remains stable due to the persistence of conservative sentiment in the stock markets (primarily debt), stable domestic demand and the prospect of a prolongation of the period of increased inflation, despite the high key bet. At the beginning of next week, given the upcoming tax payments on March 28, support for the ruble from exporters will most likely continue. However, we believe that this support may not have a significant impact on the exchange rate: the current levels for the American currency already look justified from an economic and market point of view.

We expect a movement to the lower limit of this range

Next week on world markets will be shortened due to Good Friday. Foreign exchange markets in many countries will not work on Friday. The most important data will be GDP indicators in the Russian Federation, the USA and the UK. The ongoing tax period and maintaining the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at the current level will support the exchange rate of the national currency. We maintain the current target trading range of RUB 90–93. per US dollar. We expect a movement to the lower limit of this range.

Dmitry Rozhkov,
treasury director

The ruble has the potential to strengthen to 90 rubles. per US dollar

The Bank of Russia, as expected, kept the rate at the current level of 16%, which is neutral for the ruble. However, comments from the head of the regulator that the likelihood of a rate cut in the second half of 2024 remains, contributed to its weakening during Friday’s trading. Despite the fact that we do not consider the monetary policy factor fundamental in relation to the direction of the ruble exchange rate, high rates increase the investment attractiveness of ruble savings and thereby support the ruble. Therefore, expectations of a softening of the regulator’s rhetoric are negative for the ruble in the longer term. However, the tax period falls next week, and in March exporters will add quarterly additional income tax payments to their monthly mineral extraction tax payments. A final tax payment for 2023 and an advance payment for the first quarter of 2024 are also expected. In this regard, we believe that the ruble has the potential to strengthen to 90 rubles. per US dollar.

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

The result of the meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation was the continuation of tough rhetoric, which is positive for the ruble

Despite the global strengthening of the dollar at the end of the week, the ruble has every chance of slightly improving its position in the final week of March. The result of the meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation was the continuation of tough rhetoric, which is positive for the ruble. Oil prices remain slightly below this year’s highs. The tax period of the month ends on Thursday. We estimate the volume of payments at 3.3 trillion rubles, which is almost 50% more than the February values.