Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for March 21–22

We expect pressure on the ruble to ease at the end of the week

The movement of the dollar exchange rate in recent days fits into the scenario of volatile consolidation under the important resistance zone of 93-93.5 rubles/$. Given the activity of exporters, which we expect to remain good in light of the upcoming tax payments on March 28, as well as the tight monetary policy of the Central Bank and the favorable situation on the oil market, we expect the pressure on the ruble to ease at the end of the week.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

The tone of the regulator’s statements will be significant for the overall sentiment

Our forecast for the ruble to dollar exchange rate by the end of this week is 91-93 rubles/$. The approaching tax period may provide the ruble with moderate local support. The Bank of Russia is expected to keep the key rate at 16% on Friday, which can be considered a conditionally positive scenario for the ruble, since the rate of tight monetary policy will continue. The tone of the regulator’s statements will be significant for the overall sentiment. The ruble strengthening is hampered by high budget expenses and an imbalance between the limited supply of foreign currency on the market and the consistently active demand for it from importers and investors. The effect of the Fed meeting will be important for the dynamics of the USD relative to other currencies.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of the Financial Markets Operations Department

The regulator’s decision will not have a significant impact on the ruble exchange rate

The ruble can be supported by the approaching peak of tax payments and preparations for it by exporting companies. At the same time, the Russian ruble remains dependent on the balance of exports and imports, as well as the volume of currency sales by the Central Bank. It is under pressure from the low liquidity of the foreign exchange market, as well as sanctions rhetoric. The dollar continues to be affected by inflation risks in the United States. Meanwhile, favorable news for the Russian currency and energy market is China’s increase in oil imports from Russia in the first two months of this year by 13%. The focus is on Friday’s meeting on the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, where it is expected to remain unchanged. The reasons are still the same: it is necessary to have statistics that speak in favor of a systemic reduction in pro-inflationary risks. The regulator’s decision will not have a significant impact on the ruble exchange rate, since this is part of market expectations.

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

The meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will be as neutral as possible for the ruble

The ruble remains in the middle of the short-term volatility range and does not provide much insight. The focus is on the tough rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve, which globally supports the dollar and high oil prices. The meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in March promises to generally repeat the previous rhetoric, so its results are likely to be as neutral as possible for the ruble. The approaching tax period, the volume of which is 50% more than last month, will warn against increasing speculative attempts to play on the weakening of the national currency.

Dmitry Rozhkov,
treasury director

Manipulative actions on the part of trading participants can lead to sharp currency fluctuations

Thursday (March 21) may become “dangerous” for the ruble due to the expiration of the quarterly futures for the USD/RUB pair and options linked to it. As history shows, manipulation by trading participants can lead to sharp currency fluctuations. On the other hand, on Friday there will be a meeting of the Bank of Russia on the key rate, which also often causes frenzied buying/selling in the stock and foreign exchange markets. As part of the conservative scenario, we maintain the forecast for the dynamics of the ruble in the range of 90-93 rubles/$, but given the likelihood of increased volatility in the market, we do not rule out attempts to break through the level of 93 rubles. up.

The tax period may support the ruble exchange rate

According to our expectations, the national currency rate has approached the upper limit of our designated trading range of 90-93 rubles/$. The main factors this week that could increase volatility and affect further currency movements are meetings on interest rates by the US Federal Reserve and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. We expect a neutral impact from these indicators. In addition, the tax period may support the ruble exchange rate along with rising oil prices, which have added about 2.5% over the past five days.