Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for June 8–9
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The Russian ruble, after a month and a half break, approached the level of 82 rubles/$. As a result of Wednesday’s trading on the Moscow Exchange, the US currency exchange rate amounted to 81.98 rubles / $, which is almost 50 kopecks. higher than Friday’s close. The beginning of the week did not bode well for the ruble. Against the backdrop of rising oil prices, the dollar exchange rate fell by 55 kopecks to 80.95 rubles per dollar following the results of trading on Monday, but the escalation of the geopolitical situation very quickly returned it to growth.
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| Russian Standard Bank | 80.50-82.00 |
| Expobank | 79.50-82.00 |
| Bank Zenith | 81.00 |
| BCS World of Investments | 78.50-81.50 |
| Consensus forecast * | 80.75 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
Among the positive factors is the global weakening of the dollar
The ruble shows minimal changes, remaining within the short-term volatility corridor. Those few drivers currently on the market are not able to form a certain trend. Among the positive factors, we can single out the global weakening of the dollar after the elimination of the risk of raising the base interest rate of the US Federal Reserve at the next meeting. The June meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation may also be held in line with expectations: maintaining the size of the key rate and tough rhetoric on future monetary steps. Oil prices remain at levels seen before the OPEC+ meeting, which looks good given the revision of demand prospects in the second half of the year to weaker values.
In the near future, exchange rates may react to monetary signals
Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar by the end of this week is 79-82. The ruble, which has not yet overcome the effects of April’s decline in oil prices, this week faced an escalation of geopolitical tensions. In addition, the US currency remains strong, a week before the Fed meeting, the DXY index runs around two-month highs. In the near future, exchange rates may react to monetary signals. The meeting of the Bank of Russia will take place on Friday. The consensus of expectations is that the key rate will remain at the current level of 7.5%. The monetary pause can be considered conditionally positive for the national currency. We also note that, according to the latest data from the Ministry of Finance, the budget position of the Russian Federation in May improved somewhat.
There are no obvious drivers for the growth of the American currency at the moment
On the currency market of the Moscow Exchange, trading takes place within the framework of the average weekly volatility. According to our estimates, local pressure on the position of the national currency is exerted by the low activity of exporters in the market, as well as seasonal demand for currency among the population. There are no obvious drivers for the growth of the US currency at the moment. We believe that the ruble retains its fundamental potential for strengthening, while focusing on the behavior of exporters on the market. We consider the current range to be 80–82 rubles.
The decision of the Central Bank is unlikely to noticeably affect the ruble exchange rate
As of today, the ruble can be supported by the growth of oil prices, as well as growing imports and, along with it, demand from importers for foreign currency. The sale of proceeds by exporters is capable of increasing the ruble stock in the future. The dollar is still feeling quite confident on the Moscow Exchange. The focus of investors is the weekly report of the US Department of Energy on the energy market, as well as the Friday meeting of the Central Bank on the key rate, which is likely to leave it unchanged at 7.5%. Therefore, the decision is unlikely to significantly affect the ruble exchange rate. Despite a certain predominance of pro-inflationary risks, the accumulated statistics are not enough to make a decision on the rate movement. The expected decision to leave it unchanged is adequate to the current situation with inflation and other economic indicators.
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