Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for July 3–7
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The rate of ruble weakening already looks excessive
Level 90 rub. against the dollar becomes even more likely against the background of the rapid weakening of the ruble after the end of the tax period in June. Speculative pressure on the ruble is no longer hindered, while support factors such as oil and the fiscal rule are effectively losing their strength. The authorities also called the dollar exchange rate at 90 rubles. as the upper limit of a comfortable corridor, so the ruble is unlikely to receive any support other than verbal support. Nevertheless, the rate of ruble weakening already looks excessive even taking into account the weakness of fundamental conditions. Therefore, when reaching 90 rubles. at the rate of the dollar, an attempt at a recovery correction would be quite appropriate.
From a fundamental point of view, a rate closer to 80 rubles seems to be more fair. per dollar
Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar for the next week is 85-90. We tend to believe that the devaluation round brought the exchange rate to too high values, and this is primarily due to the consequences of a surge in geopolitical risks last weekend. In addition, the tax period ended, and oil prices remained at relatively low levels. Nevertheless, from a fundamental point of view, a rate closer to 80 rubles seems to be more fair. per dollar. We expect that the additional political “premium” in the exchange rate will gradually decrease in the near term. On Tuesday, the Ministry of Finance will publish a report on oil and gas revenues in June and indicate the amount of foreign exchange intervention under the budget rule for the next period.
The dollar can locally test the mark of 90 rubles.
The pressure on the positions of the national currency remained in the second half of the week. With the end of the tax period in the country, which narrows the supply of currency on the market, we are seeing a stable demand for foreign currency, which, we believe, is formed by importers and the population. At the moment, the dollar looks significantly overbought, which limits its subsequent growth. We believe that the dollar may locally test the level of 90 rubles, however, subsequent growth looks unlikely. In our opinion, the dollar may fall in price with attempts to exit the uptrend of early 2023. We do not observe fundamental factors for the growth of foreign currency.
There are currently no fundamental reasons for a further sharp depreciation of the ruble
At the end of the working week, the ruble showed a weakening due to the lack of support from the tax period and against the backdrop of lower energy prices. It is also likely that there will be a large buyer of foreign currency on the market as part of the exit from Russian securities by investors from unfriendly jurisdictions. There are currently no fundamental reasons for a further sharp weakening of the ruble, so if its exchange rate weakens, it will most likely be for a short period of time. Changes in the geopolitical situation or further downward movement in oil prices may pull the ruble above 90 rubles. per dollar. However, ceteris paribus, the most likely range is 85–90 rubles. per dollar. Meanwhile, the May data on the dynamics of income and expenses of individuals in the US, as well as the Chicago index of business activity, deserve attention on the world market.
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