Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for January 30-February 3 – Finance – Kommersant

The growth of the dollar rate is negative for the market

Until the end of next week, we predict trading in the ruble-dollar pair in the range of 68.7-70.5 with a gradual weakening of the national currency. Pressure on the ruble will be exerted by geopolitical risks, as well as the end of the tax period. Of the important events before the end of the week, we single out the decision of the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate, which will take place on Wednesday. Market participants expect the rate to increase by 0.25% to 4.75% per annum at the upper limit. In general, the increase in the dollar rate is negative for the market, but it is likely that the regulator will comment that there will be no further significant increase in the rate. Such comments will be perceived positively by market participants, which will lead to a weakening of the dollar on world markets and, accordingly, to the strengthening of local currencies. But this will have an impact on the ruble to a lesser extent.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

The ruble may be supported by the current strengthening of oil prices

The dollar and the euro end the week with growth on the Moscow Exchange. The publication of US GDP data for the fourth quarter of last year also acted as support for the US currency. The focus is on the upcoming Fed meeting next week, which, according to forecasts, is expected to raise interest rates. Analysts are also focusing on the ECB meeting, where the rate hike is also expected. At the same time, the approaching end of the next tax period in Russia, as well as the noticeably aggravated situation in the geopolitical field, can weaken the exchange rate of the Russian currency. Support for the ruble may be the current strengthening of oil prices. However, the prospect of a lull in the energy market amid expectations of the results of the OPEC+ summit next week could stop oil from moving further up the trajectory.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

The comments and forecasts of the regulator will be important for the general sentiment

Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar for the next week is 68-71. Support for the ruble from the tax period is left behind, while the Russian currency began to give strength to the price impulse of rising oil prices. Brent does not leave attempts to overcome the bar of $90 per barrel, and if this happens, the way to $97 per barrel will technically be open. At the same time, the geopolitical discount on Russian oil still significantly limits the positive effect of rising prices for ruble-denominated assets. The Fed may raise rates by 25 bp next week. The very fact of the increase is expected and therefore is unlikely to affect the balance of power in the foreign exchange market, the comments and forecasts of the regulator will be important for the general sentiment.

Egor Zhilnikov,
chief analyst

Volatility could pick up next week as Chinese long holidays end

During this week, the dollar showed a smooth increase against the backdrop of the end of the main tax payments and the imminent introduction of a ceiling on prices for Russian oil products. At the same time, market volatility remained subdued, while dollar trading volumes gradually recovered after falling last week. We believe that the growth of the dollar will continue next week, we expect the ruble-dollar pair in the range of 70-71. Note that volatility may increase next week as the long holidays in China end. The focus will be on the meeting of the Fed and the ECB, at which the key rate is likely to be increased by 25 and 50 bp. n. respectively. If investors are active, the ruble may slightly strengthen.

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

The action of the budget rule keeps the ruble from more significant losses

The tax period weakly supports the ruble, while speculative activity is aimed at weakening it in anticipation of the implementation of restrictions on Russian oil products. Payment of basic taxes for 2.2 trillion rubles. ends on Monday, which could support the ruble at the beginning of the week. Nevertheless, after the end of the tax period, the national currency may gradually lose ground. The operation of the budget rule keeps the ruble from more significant losses, but it is not able to determine the dynamics of the domestic foreign exchange market due to small volumes. Thus, a moderate weakening of the ruble in early February by 1.5-3% looks more likely.