Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for January 3-9 – Finance – Kommersant
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The Russian ruble ended 2022 with a confident strengthening of its position against the world’s leading currencies, although the beginning of the year did not bode well for it. Since the first days of January, the US currency has confidently gone up and consolidated above the level of 77 rubles / $, which was a response to the protests in Kazakhstan, which turned into riots. With the start of a special military operation in Ukraine, the amplitude of movements increased sharply, and by March 9, the US dollar exchange rate soared by more than 40 rubles. and for the first time in history exceeded the level of 120 rubles/$. But four months later, it fell to 50 rubles / $, the lowest since 2015. This was facilitated by support measures taken by the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance: a ban on trading operations by foreign investors, restrictions on the withdrawal of capital, and the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters. In addition, due to sanctions, imports to the country fell sharply, and with it, the demand for foreign currency. As restrictive measures were eased and imports were restored, the dollar regained some of its lost positions and ended the year at 69.9 rubles/$, having lost more than 4.7 rubles since the beginning of the year. This is one of the best results among the currencies of developed and developing countries. Since the beginning of the year, the DXY index (the dollar exchange rate against the six leading currencies) has grown by almost 8%, to 103.5 points.
;
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| BCS World of Investments | 69.00-72.00 |
| Russian Standard Bank | 69.00-71.00 |
| Expobank | 67.50-71.50 |
| PSB | 65.00-70.00 |
| Bank Zenith | 70.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 69.50 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
Oil quotes will serve as the main reference point
Expectations for the four trading sessions over the New Year holidays remain subdued. Trading during this period may be volatile due to low trading volumes, which in the current conditions may be even lower than usual. Without any surprises from the foreign policy front, the ruble is likely to consolidate around 70 rubles/$. Oil quotes will serve as the main reference point. Keeping the cost of Russian oil around $60 per barrel is in equilibrium relative to the current value of the ruble in the short term. However, its deviation by $5-10 up or down can change the dollar exchange rate in one direction or another by 3-7 rubles. in a thin market.
The recovery of Russian exports can support the ruble
The decline in oil prices will pull the Russian ruble down in the New Year’s week. The recovery of Russian exports is capable of supporting the ruble in the current conditions. Also, a change in the state of affairs in the foreign exchange market is possible with the establishment of sea supplies of Russian oil and oil products. Still in the spotlight is the situation with the coronavirus in China, which largely determines the balance of power in the energy market. In the event of a relatively stable geopolitical situation, the upcoming holidays should pass on world markets in a traditional calm.
In early January, the ruble against the dollar will continue to look for a level for consolidation
Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar for the first days of January is 69-72. On the final trading day of the year, the Russian currency sharply strengthened its position. This could be due to profit-taking in currency positions, besides, the main pre-New Year’s demand for foreign currency had already been satisfied in the previous days. We believe that in early January the ruble against the dollar will continue to seek a level for consolidation and, most likely, it will be found around the 70 mark. On the one hand, the December factors of pressure on the ruble, such as increased budget spending and increased demand for imported goods. On the other hand, the entry into force of the updated budget rule, complex geopolitics and the pressure of sanctions on commodity exports may prevent the ruble from strengthening.
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