Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for January 23-27 – Finance – Kommersant
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The ruble ends the last week with a slight weakening of its positions against the world’s leading currencies. As a result of Friday’s trading, the US dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange amounted to 68.83 rubles / $, which is only 5 kopecks. higher than the values of the end of the previous week. The ruble was not able to build on the success of the beginning of the year due to market participants’ fears about the consequences of the embargo on Russian oil products coming into force in the EU and the setting of marginal prices for them.
;
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| Russian Standard Bank | 68.00-70.00 |
| BCS World of Investments | 67.00-70.00 |
| Expobank | 68.00-70.00 |
| PSB | 68.00-69.00 |
| Bank Zenith | 69.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 68.80 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
There are no reasons for the return of exchange rates to the lows of the current year
The effect of the budget rule and the approach of the main tax payments in January moderately support the ruble. On Wednesday, VAT and MET for 1.2 trillion rubles are to be paid, after which the ruble may slightly fall in price as part of the corrective dynamics. There are no reasons for the return of exchange rates to the lows of the current year. Russian oil prices have been above $60 per barrel for more than a week now. Pressure on the ruble may be exerted by the approach of February 5, when the EU restrictions on the embargo on Russian oil products, as well as the setting of marginal prices for them, will come into force. The risk lies in how much the export flows will be reduced as a result of these measures, but it is clear that the market reaction will be more modest than similar decisions on crude oil.
The dollar exchange rate may begin to grow due to the end of the tax period
The dollar exchange rate completes weekly trading in the range of 68-69 rubles. Trading activity in dollars with “tomorrow” settlements slightly decreased, while the dollar-ruble pair did not show any clear dynamics. Despite the rise in prices for Urals oil, the ruble was held back from growth by a pessimistic background on global stock markets. Investors fixed long positions, moving away from risk. At the beginning of next week, the activity of exporters will support the positions of the national currency against the backdrop of the approaching end of key tax payments. In the second half of the week, the dollar exchange rate may begin to grow due to the end of the tax period, as well as in anticipation of the introduction of a ceiling on prices for the export of petroleum products from the Russian Federation. A swap with the Bank of Russia for a couple of yuan-ruble began to operate on the market, the rates for which increased noticeably. Typically, such growth is accompanied by a weakening of the national currency. We consider the range of 69–71 rubles to be probable. for the dollar-ruble pair at the end of next week.
Meanwhile, consolidation continues on the ruble debt market
Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar for the next week is 67-70. Ahead is the peak of the tax period (January 25), and this may give the ruble strength in the coming sessions. High levels of oil prices play into the hands of the Russian currency, which is likely to continue to win back positive expectations on demand in China. True, here it is worth remembering the size of the discount for Urals oil. Meanwhile, consolidation continues on the ruble debt market. The RGBI government bond index fluctuates in different directions near three-week lows.
The “hawkish” rhetoric of the Fed representatives is not in favor of the American currency
Stable oil prices act as support for the Russian ruble. Adding to his optimism and fresh data on oil supplies to China for 2022, where Russia took second place, and imports of Russian oil into the country increased by 8%. The onset of the tax period, during which there is traditionally an increase in demand for ruble liquidity, is also capable of supporting the ruble in the near future. The dollar and the euro end the week on the Moscow Exchange with a slight decline. The “hawkish” rhetoric of the Fed representatives and the relative slowdown in the development of the US economy against the backdrop of high inflation are not in favor of the US currency.
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