Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for January 16-20 – Finance – Kommersant

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

Oil price optimism maintains support for ruble assets

Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar for the coming week is 67-70. The factor of restarting the budget rule by Friday, the 13th, when it actually started working, apparently, has already turned out to be won back. At the same time, price optimism in oil retains support for ruble assets. In addition, from the beginning of the second half of the month, exporters may become more active, selling foreign currency in advance to prepare for the tax period. The balance of factors so far indicates that the dollar/ruble pair will grope for a new level of consolidation in the near future, and, most likely, it will be found not far from the current values.

Support for the Russian currency will be provided by an increase in risk appetite on world markets

At the end of the week, the ruble lost some of its positions against foreign currencies. Speculative market participants were buying back their short positions, which were formed on the news about the exit of the Ministry of Finance with the sale of yuan as part of the implementation of the budget rule. Next week, volatility in currency pairs will have to decrease until new significant news appears. We predict the main trading range at the dollar/ruble rate within 67.5-70.5 rubles/$. The Russian currency will be supported by an increase in risk appetite on world markets, which led to a weakening of the dollar, as well as an increase in oil prices amid expectations of increased demand from China. Of the important statistics before the end of the week, we highlight the release on Thursday of the weekly report on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US. Market participants will be watching the data as it influences the decision of the US regulator on the rate.

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

The rise in world oil prices also affects the Russian mark on a comparable scale

The ruble strengthened significantly on the back of the restoration of the fiscal rule and the global weakening of the dollar. The growth of world oil prices also affects the Russian mark on a comparable scale, which allows us to count on an increase in export currency flows in the domestic market. The tax period starts this week, the payment of basic taxes, according to Zenith Bank, will require 2.2 trillion rubles, which is significantly less than the previous month. Nevertheless, the effect of the delayed conversion from last year and the moderately positive short-term outlook for the ruble may increase the activity of exporters on the domestic market until the end of January.

Egor Zhilnikov,
chief analyst

We do not observe triggers for a change in dynamics

The dollar completes weekly trading near the mark of 67 rubles. The ruble was supported this week by both the activation of exporters after the long weekend and the announcement of a modified budget rule by the Ministry of Finance, according to which the sale of yuan from the reserve for 54.5 billion rubles is expected. The situation on the oil market and the technical picture also favored the strengthening of the ruble. At the moment, we do not observe triggers for a change in dynamics. It is likely that the dollar / ruble pair will continue to decline in the range of 65-67 rubles / $. Of the important aspects, we highlight the abundance of macro statistics in China, which, if positive, can spur oil quotes. At the same time, next week it will be possible to realistically assess the effect of the modified budget rule, which, although to a small extent, plays in support of the ruble.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

The traditional decline in demand for foreign currency can act as support for the ruble

The dollar and the euro are ending the working week with a depreciation on the Moscow Exchange. The energy market is in anticipation of the development of the situation with quarantine restrictions in China, the removal of which will support oil prices and open up prospects for global demand for black gold. The ruble can be supported by the traditional decline in demand for foreign currency inherent in the beginning of the year, as well as the tax period and the regulator’s decision on the updated budget rule. At the same time, the decline in oil prices and the tense geopolitical situation are not in favor of the Russian ruble at the moment. The situation on the world market is traditionally corrected by inflation rates in the US, which are based on the Fed’s rate. From its further trajectory, in turn, will depend on the demand for oil and the alignment of forces in the foreign exchange market.