Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for February 9-10 – Finance – Kommersant
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The Russian ruble is rapidly losing ground against the US dollar. As a result of trading today, February 8, the exchange rate of the American currency at the exchange trading on the Moscow Exchange amounted to 72.3 rubles / $, which is 1.7 rubles. higher than Friday. The “bearish” game is being played by investors against the backdrop of a drop in the volume of foreign exchange earnings entering the market due to the introduction of restrictive measures against Russian oil and oil products.
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| BCS World of Investments | 69.00-72.00 |
| Bank Zenith | 71.00 |
| Russian Standard Bank | 70.00-72.00 |
| Expobank | 70.00-72.00 |
| PSB | 71.00-73.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 71.10 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
The past weakening of the ruble and the increase in the budget deficit may lead to an increase in the key rate
The ruble continues to lose ground against most currencies, despite the increase in sales of the yuan under the fiscal rule. This indicates that the volume of export earnings is declining and cannot compete with the growing demand for currency from both importers and the population. Pressure on the domestic debt market is exerted by expectations of tougher rhetoric from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at the February meeting on Friday. The past weakening of the ruble and the increase in the budget deficit may lead to an increase in the key rate already in the current half of the year, which looks rather negative for the Russian currency.
By the end of the week, the dollar will continue to gradually increase to around 73 rubles.
The dollar exchange rate exceeded 72 rubles by Wednesday, which is the maximum in a month. Support for the positions of the US currency is provided by the introduction of a price ceiling for Russian oil products, as well as a local suspension of the work of Turkish port distributors. Note that trading activity in the market remains low against the background of the beginning of the month, when exporters are the least active. We believe that by the end of the week the dollar will continue its gradual growth to the level of 73 rubles. The activity of the Ministry of Finance in the foreign exchange market will smooth out the weakening of the ruble.
Rising prices for Urals oil are now able to support the ruble
At the moment, the ruble is declining under the pressure of external factors in the form of sanctions on Russian oil products. At the same time, the decision of the European Union to exclude from sanctions oil products produced from Russian oil abroad can add a little optimism to him. The focus on the Russian market will be the decision of the regulator on the key rate at the end of this week. However, it is unlikely to noticeably affect credit and deposit rates and exchange rates. Since, according to our forecasts, at the February meeting the Central Bank is most likely to leave the key rate unchanged at 7.5% against the background of the fact that statistics on current inflation does not deviate from the forecast. Rising prices for Urals oil are also able to support the ruble now. At the same time, the geopolitical situation continues to play against him.
The recovery price trend in oil and the sale of the yuan under the fiscal rule constrain the devaluation movement
Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar by the end of the week is 69.5-72.5 rubles/$. In the middle of the week, the rate reached levels above 72 rubles. Signals about the difficult situation with the balance of the state budget increased the pressure on the Russian currency. The recovery price trend in oil and the sale of the yuan under the fiscal rule are holding back the devaluation movement. The local boundary of the current impulse in the USD/RUB pair is seen at the level of 72.5 rubles/$. Already at the beginning of the second decade, exporters will begin selling foreign currency, accumulating rubles in advance for the passage of the tax period. This should allow the ruble to win back part of the positions and return the dollar closer to 70 rubles/$.
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