Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for December 5-9 – Finance – Kommersant

Egor Zhilnikov,
chief analyst

The imposition of an embargo on Russian oil will support the positions of foreign currencies

According to our estimates, next week the dollar exchange rate may inertially approach the mark of 63 rubles, however, going beyond it looks unlikely so far. The next week is not very rich in macroeconomic events, which is why the main course of trading will be set by the situation on the oil market. On the one hand, the imposition of an embargo on Russian oil narrows the trade balance, which will support the positions of foreign currencies in the domestic market, on the other hand, we expect statements from OPEC representatives to cut oil production, which will keep oil prices high. Note that the yuan may look better than other currencies amid reduced risks associated with COVID-19.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

The Russian currency in December may be pressured by increased budget spending

Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar next week is 61-63. Support for the ruble from the tax period is left behind. By the end of the week, oil prices consolidated in the region of $86-89, in the short term, the volatility of quotations of raw materials may increase in light of the entry into force of the EU embargo on Russian oil supplies from Monday, as well as the results of the OPEC+ meeting on December 4. In addition to the prospects for a reduction in oil exports, the Russian currency in December may be under pressure from increased budget spending at the regional and federal levels and an increase in demand for imported goods on the eve of the New Year holidays.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

The appearance of demand for oil from foreign clients is capable of supporting the Russian ruble

The rate of the European currency shows a noticeable strengthening and by the end of the week rose above 65 rubles on the Moscow Exchange. for the first time since early July. The dollar is also in positive dynamics. The focus is on statements by US RFU Chairman Jerome Powell that the Central Bank may slow down the rate of interest rate hikes as early as December, as inflation has slowed to a minimum since the beginning of the year. In the meantime, the appearance of demand for oil from foreign clients is capable of supporting the Russian ruble. In positive economic news, there are reports that quarantine restrictions have been eased in several major cities in China, which could help restore energy demand indicators.

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

Pressure on the ruble comes from a decrease in the supply of foreign currency from exporters

The ruble shows a moderate decline, despite the continued global correction of the dollar and the recovery of oil prices from the lows of the current year. The pressure on the ruble comes from a decrease in the supply of foreign currency from exporters with the continued recovery of imports. The introduction of EU restrictions on Russian oil on December 5 may continue the negative trend for the ruble as it replaces the drop in export volumes, while an acceleration in the rate of ruble depreciation is unlikely due to a fairly balanced market, which minimizes speculative activity of its participants.

While the dollar index weakens against major currencies

Next week, we forecast trading in the dollar exchange rate in the range of 61–63 rubles/$ with a gradual weakening of the national currency. From the point of view of technical analysis, the rate of the American currency during November consolidated in a rather narrow range of 60–61 rubles/$. We observed the accumulation of positions by buyers, which eventually naturally led to the exit of the exchange rate from this range with a gradual movement towards the levels of 62, 63 and 65 rubles / $. Of the important events before the end of the week, we single out the publication of data on the consumer price index in China and the publication of data on the US producer price index. These data are important for country regulators to make monetary policy decisions. Recall that the US regulator will make a decision on the rate on December 14. So far, the dollar index is weakening against major currencies, but this trend is likely to change next week, which will put additional pressure on local currencies, including the ruble.