Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for December 21–22
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After a two-week break, the ruble began to lose ground against the world’s leading currencies. According to the results of trading on Wednesday, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange amounted to 90.96 rubles/$, which is more than 0.5 rubles. higher than Friday’s close. This is facilitated by a seasonal increase in demand for currencies from the population and companies.
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (RUB/$) |
|---|---|
| Russian Standard Bank | 88.50-90.50 |
| “BCS World of Investments” | 88.50-91.50 |
| PSB | 89.20-90.60 |
| Bank Zenith | 90.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 89.85 |
* Consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic average of analysts’ forecasts
In the near future, pressure and support factors will continue to be in relative balance
Our forecast for the ruble exchange rate by the end of this week is 89.5-91.5. As the New Year holidays approach, the demand for cash and non-cash currency naturally increases and at the same time the supply of rubles increases due to the seasonal increase in budget expenses. At the same time, the peak of the tax period is approaching, before which companies increase the volume of foreign currency sold on the market to make ruble payments. Basically, the effect of strict monetary policy and temporary controls on the repatriation and sale of export proceeds are keeping the ruble from weakening. We believe that in the near future, pressure and support factors will continue to be in relative balance, which will keep the dollar at around 90.
The increase in the key rate by the Bank of Russia did not provide a strong incentive for the strengthening of the ruble
Until the end of the week, the ruble will tend to strengthen, as the period of tax payments will provide support. But it is worth noting that the basic negative factor remains the export-import balance, as well as ongoing geopolitical risks. The increase in the key rate by the Bank of Russia did not provide a strong incentive to strengthen the ruble, as it was included in expert forecasts. A positive factor for the ruble is the rise in oil prices above $80 against the backdrop of US Navy operations in the Red Sea. In addition, this week pressure on the ruble may be exerted by such factors as the traditional increased demand for dollars and euros on the eve of the holidays. It is also worth noting that investors expect from the US Federal Reserve a noticeable reduction in the base interest rate in 2024, as well as a slowdown in inflation in the US, which has a positive impact on the growth of investors’ risk appetite.
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