Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for December 18–22
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After a two-week break, the ruble began to strengthen its position against the world’s leading currencies. According to the results of Friday trading, the exchange rate of the dollar on the Moscow Exchange amounted to 90.28 rubles/$, which is 1.62 rubles. below the closing values of the previous week. This is facilitated by the recovery in oil prices, as well as the general weakening of the American currency in the world.
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (RUB/$) |
|---|---|
| Russian Standard Bank | 88.50-90.50 |
| “BCS World of Investments” | 88.50-91.50 |
| PSB | 89.20-90.60 |
| Bank Zenith | 90.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 89.85 |
* Consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic average of analysts’ forecasts
The results of the meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for the ruble look rather neutral
The ruble continues to recover after weakening. Support is provided by the corrective growth in oil prices, as well as the global weakening of the dollar after the US Federal Reserve softened its rhetoric at the December meeting. The results of the meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for the ruble look rather neutral, since an increase in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation was the most expected scenario. Until the end of the year, the ruble may be supported by the tax period. The volume of basic payments is estimated at 3.5 trillion rubles. (+30% compared to November), which looks significant for the current exchange turnover of the domestic foreign exchange market.
Pressure comes from falling oil prices in November and early December
Our forecast for the ruble to dollar exchange rate for next week is 88.5–91.5. The effect of raising the key rate will manifest itself in a couple of months through a further cooling of credit demand for imports and an increase in the attractiveness of ruble savings. The peak of monetary support for the ruble will occur in the first quarter of 2024. In the meantime, opposite factors are acting on the ruble, ensuring a local exchange rate balance. The pressure is exerted by the decline in oil prices in November – early December, the seasonal demand of the population for foreign currency and the large budget expenditures characteristic of the end of the year. The ruble is favored by the monetary rigidity of the Central Bank, mandatory sales of most of the foreign exchange earnings, and the rollback of the global dollar after the Fed meeting on Wednesday. In addition, from the middle of the month, exporters begin to accumulate rubles for the tax period.
The Russian ruble should not be expected to receive significant support in the short term from an increase in the key rate by the regulator.
Traditionally positive factors for the ruble are the approaching peak of December tax payments. So it can be supported by exporters’ demand for ruble liquidity, which will increase in the coming days. At the same time, the Russian ruble should not be expected to receive significant support in the short term from an increase in the key rate by the regulator. However, its growth in any case will increase the demand for ruble deposits and, as a result, for the national currency itself. The ruble currently continues to be under pressure from geopolitical and inflation risks. Meanwhile, among the positive news for the euro is the ECB maintaining all three key interest rates at the same level amid slowing inflation in the eurozone in recent months.
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