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Polina Khvoinitskaya,
Head of Investment Strategy and Analytics
We expect trading in the Russian currency in the range of 90−100 rubles/$.
Until the end of next week, we expect a trading range at the rate in the range of 90.5–92.5 rubles/$. Next week will see the last important regulatory decisions of the year. The Russian bond market reflects another increase in the key rate by the Bank of Russia at its meeting on Friday. Accordingly, these expectations also support the Russian currency. We still expect trading in the Russian currency in the range of 90−100 rubles/$. Let us add that on world markets Brent oil prices are trading at around $76 per barrel. In the medium term, this fact will put pressure on the balance of payments of the Russian Federation and, as a result, will stimulate trading in the Russian currency in the range of 90–100 rubles/$. Note that by the end of the month, demand for foreign currency traditionally increases and after the meeting of the Russian regulator, the dollar is likely to win back some of the losses against the ruble.
Evgeniy Loktyukhov,
Head of Economic and Industry Analysis Department
We have positive expectations for the ruble for the next week
On Thursday, the dollar and yuan began to decline quite confidently against the ruble. The reason for the active reduction of positions in currencies by market participants was new introductions, which indicate a strong foundation for the ruble. Thus, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that the Russian federal budget deficit for 11 months of the year is small (about 0.5% of GDP), and the consolidated budget is in surplus. In addition, on Thursday evening the Central Bank published a review of financial market risks, in which it noted an increase in foreign currency sales by exporters. The strengthening of the ruble in November occurred against the backdrop of increased purchases by non-residents from friendly countries selling ruble revenue, as well as by the population. We have positive expectations for the ruble for the next week: as the Central Bank meeting approaches, we expect the trend towards strengthening of the ruble to develop and we believe that the exchange rate will be able to gain a foothold in the range of 85–90 rubles/$. Demand for the currency may also be limited by the approaching results of 2023 with Vladimir Putin (December 14), which traditionally supports optimism about the economy and the ruble, as well as the likely development of a recovery in oil prices, which have been noticeably oversold in recent days.
Denis Buivolov,
analyst
Rates will not change, but the dollar may be sensitive to the regulator’s rhetoric
Our forecast for the ruble/dollar exchange rate for next week is 90.5–93.5 rubles/$. Due to the saturation of events, oppositely directed factors may simultaneously act on the ruble. The national currency may be supported by expectations of an increase in the key rate by the Central Bank next Friday. At the same time, the Fed will also hold a meeting this week. Rates will not change, but the dollar may be sensitive to the regulator’s rhetoric. A strict monetary policy and mandatory sales of foreign currency by exporters will continue to fundamentally support the ruble. At the same time, the decline in oil prices in recent weeks may be reflected in the exchange rate. Pressure may also be exerted by seasonal trends – increased government spending and the pre-New Year demand of the population for foreign currency. Under these conditions, new punctures at the level of 92.5 rubles/$ cannot be ruled out.
Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department
Oil prices lack growth drivers
The ruble confidently repels attempts to implement devaluation strategies. Oil prices, which have dropped to six-month lows, as well as the global strengthening of the dollar, are not in favor of the Russian currency. The US currency may begin to decline against the backdrop of the US jobs report in November, as this is one of the signs of the end of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Oil prices lack growth drivers and are likely to consolidate at current lows. Thus, the outlook for the ruble looks rather neutral.
Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of the Financial Markets Operations Department
The rate will tend to moderately strengthen due to various factors
The volatility of the ruble may continue with a high degree of probability due to the fact that, in addition to various market factors, its exchange rate continues to be influenced by geopolitical factors. However, all other things being equal, we do not expect the ruble to weaken significantly in the near future. Rather, its rate will tend to moderately strengthen due to various factors, including the ongoing repatriation of foreign currency earnings by exporters, the expected increase in the key rate, and still high energy prices. Oil prices, meanwhile, received support from Saudi Arabia and Russia’s call for other OPEC+ members to join in cutting oil production. The focus of the global market is on forecasts for the rhetoric of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting this week, as well as the latest statistics on employment in non-farm payrolls in the US, as well as on unemployment for November.
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