Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for December 1-2 – Finance – Kommersant
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The Russian ruble is losing ground against the world’s leading currencies. As a result of Wednesday’s trading, the US currency exchange rate at the auctions of the Moscow Exchange amounted to 60.99 rubles / $, which is almost 50 kopecks. higher than the previous day’s close. The weakness of the ruble is associated with a decrease in the supply of foreign currency from exporters who have completed the payment of November taxes.
;
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| Expobank | 60.00-61.50 |
| Russian Standard Bank | 60.00-61.50 |
| BCS World of Investments | 60.00-62.00 |
| Bank Zenith | 61.00-62.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 61.00 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
In the short term, the dollar-ruble pair will not determine the trend
Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar remains at 60-62 until the end of this week. After passing the peak of the tax period, the Russian currency was not left without support – oil prices began to recover as general sentiment improved, the dollar depreciated against major currencies, as well as signals indicating that OPEC + on December 4 may decide to reduce production for market stabilization. The ruble debt market is still practically without movement. We believe that the dollar-ruble pair will not determine the trend in the short term, continuing to ply near the current values.
An important event will be the meeting of OPEC + at the weekend
The ruble is recovering its positions after a weak start to the week, caused by the global strengthening of the dollar and the decline in oil prices. The end of the tax period also affects the smaller supply of foreign currency in the domestic market. Participants’ attention is focused on the epidemiological situation in China, which is reducing its impact on global sentiment, but remains important in terms of commodity prices. The likely introduction of additional incentives in China may calm the markets and lead to a recovery in oil prices. An important event will be the OPEC+ meeting at the weekend. If a decision is made to further reduce production, the oil market will react with growth, which will positively affect the value of the Russian currency.
The end of the tax period may lead to a slight weakening of the ruble in the coming days
The currency market is now relatively stable, the dollar and the euro are traded on the Moscow Exchange without sharp fluctuations. The end of the tax period may lead to a slight weakening of the ruble in the coming days. At the same time, the active discussion of the prospects for an EU oil embargo and a possible price ceiling continues to put pressure on him. Meanwhile, in favor of the Russian currency – statements at the Russian-Chinese Energy Business Forum that electricity supplies from Russia to China in January-October increased by 33% compared to ten months of 2021. In the energy market, the focus is on the upcoming OPEC + meeting on December 4, at which the alliance can maintain the same level of oil production. However, it is also possible to reduce it.
Macroeconomic statistics in the USA can support the position of the ruble
The week began with the weakening of the ruble due to a sharp deterioration in the external background, as well as the end of the main tax payments by exporters. At the same time, the volume of trades in the dollar with settlements “tomorrow” remained at the average weekly values. However, a more expressive dynamics was shown by the euro-ruble pair, which at the moment was trading at highs since the beginning of October. We believe that the European currency was additionally supported by its confident positions in foreign markets — the euro-dollar pair on FOREX traded highs since the beginning of July. Until the end of this week, the dollar may move to the middle of the range of 61-62 rubles. against the backdrop of a narrowing supply of foreign currency due to the end of the main tax payments, as well as price adjustments in the oil market. However, the macroeconomic statistics in the US may support the ruble’s positions, which, as we expect, may be quite good.
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