Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for August 28–September 1
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After a brief lull, the ruble again began to lose ground on the foreign exchange market. Last week, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange increased by 1.66 rubles to 95.42 rubles/$. The main reasons for the weakening of the ruble remained the same – a disproportion between exports and imports, the outflow of capital due to the departure of foreign companies and the demand for currency from the population.
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| Bank Zenith | 94.00 |
| PSB | 92.00-96.00 |
| Russian Standard Bank | 93.00-96.00 |
| BCS World of Investments | 93.00-96.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 94.25 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
Currency supply is unlikely to change much in the short term
The balance of market supply and demand for foreign currency may be disturbed with the end of the tax period, as a result of which we do not rule out a temporary consolidation of the dollar in the zone of 95–96 rubles. The strengthening of the global dollar, the weak dynamics of the ruble debt market and the difficult news background can also act as a negative for the national currency. At the same time, the supply of foreign currency is unlikely to change much in the short term, given the current agreements between the authorities and businesses to sell more foreign exchange earnings. In addition, with a time lag, the dynamics of the ruble can be translated into an increase in oil prices, which began in late July.
The volatility of oil prices continues to keep the ruble in suspense
Support for the Russian ruble may be positive news about the restoration of the ratio of exports and imports and the subsequent increase in the flow of foreign currency entering the country. At the same time, the impending end of tax payments is currently against the ruble, which can weaken the Russian currency in the future. Continues to keep the ruble in suspense volatility of oil prices. The focus is on the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve, as well as the publication of the consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan for August, which can affect the balance of power in the currency market in the coming days. Meanwhile, a record outflow of foreign capital from China continues to play against the yuan, and a meeting planned by the Chinese regulator with global investors to strengthen their confidence can help it.
As a positive factor, it is worth highlighting the resumption of growth in oil prices
The end of the tax period in August at the beginning of the week will deprive the ruble of potential support from exporters. Nevertheless, we can state a reversal of the devaluation trend. Despite the lack of fundamental reasons for the strengthening of the ruble, the approach to the highs of the current month is fraught with the risk of another support for the national currency from the authorities. As a positive factor, it is worth highlighting the resumption of growth in oil prices, including Russian oil. All this should allow the ruble to consolidate in the region of 93–95 rubles/$.
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