Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for August 22-26 – Finance – Kommersant
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The growth of the US dollar in the future may be helped by the statements of the Fed
The Russian ruble shows strengthening positions in the face of the current decline in demand from importers and increased activity of exporters in anticipation of tax payments, as well as rising oil prices. The dollar, meanwhile, updated its lows at the end of July. A similar decline by the end of the week showed the European currency. The growth of the US dollar in the future may be helped by the Fed’s statements in support of the active growth of the rate already in the coming September. Uncertainty still persists on the global energy market, and it is very premature to talk about any kind of consensus between the countries. The focus here is on the statement by the Secretary General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on the prospects for an energy crisis in the coming winter.
Pay attention to the instability of general market sentiment
Our forecast for the ruble/dollar exchange rate for next week is 57.5–61.5 rubles/$. The Russian currency will continue to receive support from the tax period in the near future, its peak will be on August 25. In conditions of relatively low market liquidity, this factor has a significant impact on the movement of the exchange rate. At the same time, we draw attention to the unsuccessful attempts of oil quotes to recover in the direction of $100 per barrel, as well as the instability of general market sentiment. In our opinion, after the peak of the tax period, the USD/RUB pair will return to the area of 60–62 rubles/$.
Until the end of the tax period, the ruble is likely to maintain a strong position
The ruble is strengthening against most competitors amid the approaching peak in tax payments. Until the end of August, VAT, MET, excises and corporate income tax in the amount of about 1.4 trillion rubles will have to be paid, which is quite a lot, given the average daily trading volume in major currency pairs. The ruble price of a barrel of Urals rose above 4.5 thousand rubles, which was largely due to the growth in the cost of Russian oil by 7% over the week. This somewhat reduces the risks of resuming negative rhetoric for the ruble from the financial authorities of the Russian Federation. Until the end of the tax period, the ruble is likely to maintain a strong position.
After the end of tax payments, the dollar may return to consolidation in the range of 60-61 rubles.
By the end of the current week, the USD/RUB pair started to decrease amid the activation of exporters in anticipation of tax payments. At the same time, there was a local decrease in dollar trading activity with “tomorrow” settlements, while the volatility indicator showed an increase. It is worth noting that the euro exchange rate actually caught up with the dollar for the first time since July 15. Moreover, this effect is observed not only on the Moscow Exchange, but also on global markets. The market continues to believe in the delayed monetary policy of the ECB and the risks of a sharp recession on the European continent. We expect that this situation on the Moscow Exchange may continue until the end of the tax period. According to our estimates, in the first half of next week, the US currency will continue to decline in the range of 57-59 rubles. After the end of tax payments, the dollar may return to consolidation in the range of 60–61 rubles, where there was a noticeable parity between the demand and supply of the currency. Note that earlier the quotes ignored fluctuations in the oil market, as well as US macro statistics.
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