Dmitry Rozhkov,
treasury director
In recent weeks, we have been observing inactive dynamics of the ruble
Since the end of March, the ruble has been consolidating in a narrow range of 91.5-93 rubles/$ under the influence of several factors counteracting each other. On the one hand, expensive oil contributes to the growth of oil and gas revenues to the budget, which in the first quarter grew by 80% year-on-year and amounted to 2.928 trillion rubles. On the other hand, the volume of net sales of foreign currency on the domestic market by the Bank of Russia in April will decrease by almost 12 times compared to the month before. At the same time, there is an open question in the air about the future fate of the presidential decree on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings, on which the authorities have differing opinions. In view of this, the risk remains that a decrease in foreign currency receipts on the domestic market could weaken the ruble. Therefore, in recent weeks we have been observing inactive dynamics of the ruble. Next week, no significant events are expected that could affect the direction of the ruble exchange rate in one direction or another, so we expect continued consolidation in the above-mentioned range.
Roman Belevsky,
leading analyst
Inflation data may adjust expectations for a reduction in global interest rates
Next week, market participants are waiting for data on monthly inflation in the Russian Federation, the US and the EU for March. On Wednesday, consumer price index figures will be released in the US and Russia; on Thursday, consumer prices for a number of European countries and the producer price index in the US will also be published. In addition, a decision on the ECB interest rate will be made on Thursday. Inflation data may adjust expectations for a reduction in global interest rates. As we noted earlier, from April 5, the total volume of currency sales on the market by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will decrease significantly. At the same time, we do not observe a significant reaction from bidders. Therefore, the target trading range for the next week of 90-93 rubles/$ remains in force.
Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of the Financial Markets Operations Department
Not in favor of the dollar – a decrease in its share in global payments via SWIFT
The ruble continues to maintain its position without increased volatility. Among the news favorable for the Russian currency and energy markets are statements about an increase in investment in oil production in Russia in 2023. Meanwhile, factors contributing to the rise in oil prices are the prospects for an aggravation of the situation in the Middle East. Among them are forecasts for growth in oil demand in the United States, where statistics from the Ministry of Energy were released showing a recent decrease in gasoline inventories in the United States. Meanwhile, the dollar is not in favor of discussing reports that its share in global payments via SWIFT in February fell to its lowest level since July last year. And also an increase in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, which reached a maximum in nine weeks.
Denis Popov,
chief analyst
Market volatility may increase next week
Last week the rate consolidated around 92.5 rubles/$. The main factor in the consolidation of the rate was the favorable situation on world commodity markets: Brent oil prices by the end of the week exceeded $90 per barrel, reaching new highs since November last year. The decrease in daily volumes of foreign currency sales by the Bank of Russia since April 5 (to 0.6 billion rubles from 7.1 billion rubles) on the last day of the week did not have an impact on market conditions. However, we do not rule out that increased buyer activity will return to the market next week, given the steady growth in domestic demand, which is usually accompanied by the activity of importers. Thus, next week volatility in the market may increase, and the dollar may again try to test the resistance zone of 93-93.5 rubles. However, at the beginning of the week the level was 92.5 rubles. /$ is likely to remain relevant to the market. We keep the target range for April at 91−95 rubles.
Marina Nikishova,
head economist
There are risks of a possible weakening of the ruble
A steady increase in commodity prices can compensate for the upcoming decrease in oil exports from Russia under the terms of the OPEC+ deal. But there are also risks of a possible weakening of the ruble. The symbolic slowdown in weekly inflation and low unemployment in Rosstat reports maintain uncertainty with the likely start of a reduction in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, maintaining constant domestic demand for foreign currency. The total volume of currency sales by the Bank of Russia (taking into account the mirroring of all operations of the National Welfare Fund) will decrease quite significantly from April 5 (from 7.1 billion to 0.6 billion rubles per day), which increases the risk of pressure on the ruble.
