Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for April 3-7 – Finance – Kommersant
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Last week, the ruble ended with another weakening of its positions against the world’s leading currencies. As a result of trading on Friday, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange amounted to 77.60 rubles / $, which is 53 kopecks. higher than the previous week’s close. The growth of the US dollar is facilitated by a decrease in the supply of currency from exporters, as well as growing imports into the country.
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| Russian Standard Bank | 76.50-78.00 |
| Expobank | 77.00-79.00 |
| Bank Zenith | 78.00 |
| PSB | 77.00-79.00 |
| BCS World of Investments | 76.00-78.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 77.65 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
Deterioration of macroeconomic parameters continues to be translated into the current assessment of the Russian currency
The ruble ended the week weakening against major currencies. The dollar-ruble pair approached the level of 78, despite the generally positive external environment – the recovery of risk appetite, rising oil prices. The current valuation of the Russian currency continues to be reflected in the deterioration of macroeconomic parameters — an increase in the budget deficit, a deterioration in the trade balance as a result of the sanctioned contraction of exports and a simultaneous recovery in import flows. Next week, the volume of operations of the Ministry of Finance with currency within the framework of the budget rule for the next monthly period will become known. In the short term, we expect the movement of the dollar-ruble pair in the range of 76-78.
Demand for foreign currency among banks remains elevated
On the final day of the working week, the pressure on the ruble’s positions intensified, despite the recovering oil prices. The effect was caused by a decrease in risk appetite among investors against the backdrop of a local increase in geopolitical risks. Next week, the dollar-ruble pair will continue its gradual growth in the range of 77-79 rubles. Demand for foreign currency among banks remains elevated, while the supply of dollars will decrease due to the weak activity of exporters due to the beginning of the month. High volatility in the market is not to be expected on the eve of non-working days on the Chinese and US stock exchanges.
The next important event for the ruble may be the announcement of the size of the sale of yuan by the Ministry of Finance under the budget rule
After the end of the tax period in March, the ruble resumed its negative dynamics against major currencies. There are still few reasons to restore positions due to the relatively low level of prices for Russian oil and a decrease in the physical volumes of its production and exports. The losses of the ruble against the dollar since the beginning of the year have reached 10%, which is relatively small compared to both most currencies of developing economies and the dynamics of Russia’s foreign trade. The next important event for the ruble may be the announcement of the size of the sale of yuan by the Ministry of Finance under the budget rule. If the volume is increased by one and a half to two times, then this may briefly support the ruble.
Interventions within the framework of the budget rule continue to play in favor of the Russian currency
At the end of the week, the US dollar was able to strengthen against the background of payments on Eurobonds in rubles, which many holders could convert back into dollars. Nevertheless, the appetite for risk in the stock markets of Europe and the US is playing against the dollar today. Against the European currency are the data of the German Federal Employment Agency on the increased unemployment rate there. Oil prices, meanwhile, show growth, which may have a positive impact on the current ruble exchange rate. In favor of the Russian currency, interventions continue to play within the framework of the budget rule, sales of Chinese yuan by the Russian Ministry of Finance. As a guide for the financial and energy markets, data published by the University of Michigan on inflation expectations, as well as the prospects for economic recovery in China, where so far the manufacturing activity of March still showed insufficient capacity, can serve as a guideline.
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