Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for April 27–28
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The foreign exchange market has finally lost momentum, which gave it the outflow of capital. The exchange rate of the dollar ended Wednesday’s trading at 81.62 rubles/$, up 8 kopecks. lower than Friday’s close. The support of the ruble exchange rate was facilitated by exporters, who are actively selling foreign currency in anticipation of the payment of basic taxes.
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| PSB | 81.50 |
| BCS World of Investments | 81.00-82.00 |
| Russian Standard Bank | 81.00-82.50 |
| Bank Zenith | 81.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 81.44 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
Completion of the tax period at the end of the week and a weekend extended by 1 day in the Russian Federation can lead to moderate losses of the ruble
The ruble looks stable, on the eve of the main tax payments of the month, speculative activity against the Russian currency is minimal. Nevertheless, the end of the tax period at the end of the week and the weekend extended by 1 day in the Russian Federation may lead to moderate losses of the ruble on Friday. It is also worth adding the persistence of a moderately negative external background, which is associated with the US banking sector, to which oil quotes may begin to react more noticeably.
In the absence of significant news, the Russian currency will continue to trade in the range of 81-83 rubles / $
At the beginning of the week, the Russian currency firmly consolidated in the range of 81–82 rubles/$. Such low volatility is explained by the absence of both new negative and positive news. The key event of the second half of the week will be the meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, following which a decision on the key rate will be made and comments on the further monetary policy of the regulator are possible. We expect that in the absence of significant news, the Russian currency will continue to trade in the range of 81-83 rubles / $ until the end of the week.
Support for the national currency is offset by an increase in the number of foreign trade operations in rubles
Despite the completion of the main tax payments by exporters, trading activity in the dollar with “tomorrow” settlements did not undergo noticeable changes, while the rate continued to show sideways movement. At the moment, the market maintains a balance between supply and demand for currency. In part, support for the national currency is offset by an increase in the number of foreign trade operations in rubles. This week, the dollar will continue to consolidate in the range of 81-82 rubles. and in early May, in the absence of news shocks, it may go beyond the upper limit of the range. At the moment, we do not observe strong drivers for the formation of directional dynamics.
Yuan continues to conquer the market
The traditional peak of tax payments at the end of the current month is capable of supporting the ruble. The focus of attention on the Russian market is the upcoming decision on the key rate. There is no obvious predominance of pro-inflationary risks, so it is most likely that the regulator will leave the key rate unchanged with a possible tightening of the signal. Positive data on the growth of the consumer climate index in Germany GfK, as well as an increase in the April indicator of consumer confidence in France, can provide support to the euro. The market’s attention is also attracted by the statistics on unemployment in France. Yuan continues to conquer the market. Thus, its use in cross-border transactions in March exceeded the US dollar for the first time. The geopolitical background is still unstable and has a significant impact on exchange rates.
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