Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for April 10-14 – Finance – Kommersant

Egor Zhilnikov,
chief analyst

Reduced activity of exporters will prevail next week

Throughout the week, the ruble was under pressure, despite the stability of oil prices. However, on Friday the dollar corrected, which was accompanied by accumulated overheating, which prompted a number of players to fix long positions before the weekend. The sentiment was also supported by data from the Ministry of Finance on improving the situation with the budget of the Russian Federation: March became the first month of 2023 with a surplus. The increased volatility of the exchange rate will continue, so we set a wide target range – 80–85 rubles. We do not rule out that the reduced activity of exporters will prevail next week, at least at the beginning. But towards the end of the week, we expect a gradual increase in the supply of foreign currency from exporters due to the approach of the next tax payments. Over the next few weeks, the ruble will compensate for the losses of this week thanks to the accumulated foreign exchange earnings of exporters. By the end of the month, the dollar may return to 80 rubles.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

The ruble has every chance for a correction even in the short term

Despite rising oil prices after the decision of OPEC + to reduce production, the ruble continued to lose its positions under the influence of both the recovery in demand for imports and the exit of non-residents through conversion from the Russian market. The pressure on the ruble is exerted by the relocation of capital and residents, as evidenced by the appreciation of the currencies of a number of neighboring CIS countries, the tenge in particular. The decrease in the supply of yuan for sale under the budget rule also played a role in the weakening of the ruble. Nevertheless, the ruble has every chance for a correction even in the short term, since a number of factors negative for the ruble are of a limited nature in time. The next benchmark of world analysts in the coming days will be the results of the publication of data on the US labor market.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

The ruble faced a negative information background

Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar for the next week is 78–81 rubles. Sharp shifts of the exchange rate not in favor of the Russian currency at the end of last week were explained not so much by fundamental reasons as by speculative ones. The ruble faced a negative information background related to the exit of non-residents from energy projects in Russia, against which there were fears of an increase in capital outflow. At the same time, oil prices are stable around $85, and a preliminary assessment of the execution of the federal budget for January-March 2023 indicates that the budget deficit narrowed last month, the situation with export earnings is improving. With a high probability, in the coming trading sessions, the dollar will return to levels below 80 rubles.

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

The rate of weakening of the Russian currency is increasing

The Russian currency remains in fundamentally weak conditions. In addition to currency cuts as part of export sales, companies are in no hurry to convert the received proceeds into rubles, preferring to wait for more favorable rates. Importers, on the other hand, are stepping up activity, watching for indirect signs of rising consumer confidence. Such a bias in the trade balance is already not in favor of the ruble. Meanwhile, coordinating the exit of non-residents from joint projects with Russia leads to significant movements in exchange rates with a rather thin market in the dollar-ruble pair. A noticeable weakening of the ruble leads to an increase in speculative activity in the absence of any support from the monetary and financial authorities. It is also worth adding a 1.5-fold reduction in the volume of yuan sales compared to the previous month, which is more psychological than market. It indicates that the authorities are not concerned about the current dynamics of the ruble. The pace of the weakening of the Russian currency is increasing, so it is likely that the authorities will get involved in the situation on the foreign exchange market and carry out a series of verbal interventions in support of the ruble. Otherwise, the risks of accelerated inflation, tightening of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and a decrease in the potential of the Russian economy will become more tangible.

Market participants will evaluate the rhetoric of the American regulator

Until the end of the week, we predict trading in the range of 79.5-81.5 rubles. We believe that the main movement in the rate has taken place, and now the volatility will have to decrease. Market participants will seize the moment and gradually take profits on currency positions and shift into Russian securities. Of the important events before the end of the week, we highlight the conference of the IMF and the World Bank, as well as the publication on Wednesday of the minutes of the previous meeting of the Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve. Market participants will evaluate the rhetoric of the American regulator and make their own forecasts regarding the likelihood of a further increase in the dollar rate. If forecasts for a further increase in the rate are maintained, the dollar index will rise, and this will put pressure on local currencies. Although it will affect the ruble to a lesser extent.