Dollar at the level of psychology – Kommersant FM
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In December, the population bought foreign currency for 180 billion rubles. — this is the maximum for 2023. The main interest was in dollars and euros, the Central Bank said. Demand growth has been observed for three months in a row. Moreover, neither high interest rates nor the strengthening of the ruble could affect it. The Central Bank in its official review calls this behavior “countercyclical.” Kommersant FM tried to figure out why Russians are still buying dollars, no matter what. With details Ivan Yakunin.
The Central Bank’s statistics speak for themselves. In September, purchases were modest, at 40 billion rubles. In October they tripled to 120 billion rubles. The result for November is 160 billion rubles. In December – another 180 billion rubles. They buy on the stock exchange and in banks, dollars and euros, in cash and on account. Moreover, demand grew both when the dollar soared to 100 rubles and when it fell to 88 rubles. Banks competed for Russians’ funds, raising deposit rates by an average of four percentage points. And still the population cannot be convinced. Why, suggested the former head of the Central Bank Sergei Dubinin:
“Currency is a traditional “safe haven”. In conditions of uncertainty in development trends for household savings, people are trying to differentiate their investments. If they don’t follow the course, all the more rationally. It often happened that they bought currency when it was very expensive. At this moment, pure psychology kicks in, which means people are on the verge of panic.”
The official statements from the authorities do not help at all. The Ministry of Economic Development insists that the dollar exchange rate will be about 90 rubles. in 2024. The Central Bank plans to bring inflation to 4%. But judging by inflation expectations, Russians are preparing to see prices rise by 14%, and this, in theory, explains the demand for the currency. But Professor of the Financial University Alexey Zubets denies such a connection:
“We monitor the purchase of all kinds of goods. And among other things, we ask people what they think about currency. So, now there is less interest. Because the ruble has strengthened, and in conditions when the dollar is getting cheaper, it’s pretty stupid to buy it. There is no crazy activity.
If there is an increase in interest in the dollar, it is not related to the investment sentiments of the population. Who else is interested besides citizens? A business that most likely buys something to ensure imports.”
Theoretically, this is possible: it is easier for small companies to buy currency as an individual and continue working. For Central Bank statistics, this will still look like demand from the population, although the volumes there are quite considerable: on average, it turns out that over the last four months each citizen bought at least $40. And the trend may take hold, says Bloomberg Economics Russia economist Alexander Isakov:
“Shopping also has seasonal factors. For example, on the eve of long holidays there is an increase in foreign tourism. But the main thing remains the fact that these are primarily investment goals. We see a continued outflow of foreign currency to accounts in foreign banks and an increase in funds in accounts with foreign brokers.
That is, the population, in essence, insures its country risk. This is what the government does, and intuitively households do the same. Not with the intention of earning large sums of money, but in order to stabilize its resistance to a potential weakening of the exchange rate.
In my opinion, the dollar is below 95 rubles. by the end of the year is the current baseline scenario.”
The Central Bank does not exclude that the increase in demand could be seasonal. As a result, in December the national currency weakened by 1%. The first working week of January corrected the situation, and now market expectations for the exchange rate are positive. But, as follows from the regulator’s documents, this has little effect on the behavior of Russians.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
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