Dividends have strengthened the ruble – Kommersant

Exchange rates of major currencies in the Russian market have updated the monthly minimum. In particular, the dollar exchange rate returned to the level of 78 rubles/$, the euro – to 86.18 rubles/€, the yuan – to 11.27 rubles/CNY. This is facilitated by a decrease in demand for foreign currency on the part of importers and speculators, as well as its growing supply as part of the preparation of companies for dividend payments.

On Thursday, the dollar exchange rate at the exchange auctions of the Moscow Exchange for the first time in a month fell below 78 rubles/$. At the beginning of the morning session, the rate rose by 20 kopecks, to the level of 79.43, but after two hours it returned to the closing value of Wednesday. During the main session, the decline accelerated, and the level of 79 rubles/$ and then 78 rubles/$ were successively overcome. At 16:20, the exchange rate hit 77.61 rubles/$, the lowest level since April 3rd. At the end of the trading session, the exchange rate was 78.05 rubles / $, which is 1.15 rubles. lower than the closing values ​​of the previous day and almost 4 rubles. below the local maximum reached last Thursday. The euro exchange rate fell by 1.54 rubles during the day, to a monthly minimum of 86.18 rubles / €, having lost 4.5 rubles in five trading days. The yuan lost 18 kopecks in price per day. and fell to the level of 11.269 rubles / CNY, which is 56 kopecks. lower than a week ago.

At the same time, the intensity of trading this week remained elevated, especially in the US dollar, which is not typical at the beginning of the month, when sales of foreign exchange earnings by exporters are minimal. Since the beginning of May, the volume of transactions with the dollar with the calculation “tomorrow” amounted to 100-120 billion rubles. daily, whereas in early April it was at the level of 80-96 billion rubles, and in March even less – 55-77 billion rubles.

Experts attribute the fall in exchange rates and increased activity in the US dollar to a combination of several factors. Firstly, analysts note a decrease in demand for foreign currency from importers. This, according to Mikhail Shulgin, head of the global research department at Otkritie Investments, could be facilitated by the strong weakening of the ruble, realized in the first half of April, plus the seasonal effect of low activity in the interval between May. In his opinion, the demand for the currency on the part of speculators could also decrease, after the authorities managed to put things in order with the outflow of funds from foreign companies that received permission “to exit and withdraw funds.”

Abnormally high trading volumes only in US dollars may indicate a not quite market nature of its offer.

According to the head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank Vladimir Evstifeev, this may be the preparation of companies for dividend payments, which will require additional conversion of foreign exchange earnings. By the beginning of May, the boards of directors of 30 companies recommended paying dividends totaling 1.3 trillion rubles this spring and summer.

Additional support for the ruble is provided by data on the reduction in the spread between Russian Urals oil and the North Sea benchmark Brent. On Tuesday, the Ministry of Finance announced that the average price of Russian oil in April was $58.3 per barrel, up 22.5% from March levels. This, combined with consistently high oil exports, reduces the risks of shortfalls in oil revenues for the budget and has a positive effect on economic outlook. In particular, the Central Bank expects GDP growth of 0.5-2%, although back in February it expected a decline. This is an indirectly positive, albeit background aspect for the ruble, Mikhail Shulgin believes.

Under the prevailing market conditions, analysts do not rule out further depreciation of the US dollar in Russia.

According to Polina Khvoynitskaya, Head of Investment Strategy and Analyst at Expobank, there is a possibility of reaching the mark of 76.5 rubles/$ by the end of this month, where the pair consolidated during March of this year. The negative factor, in her opinion, is the general decline in risk appetite in world markets, associated with the banking crisis in the US and a further increase in the dollar rate. This negatively affects the cost of oil, and hence the flow of foreign currency into the country, Mikhail Shulgin explains, not excluding the depreciation of the dollar to 76-77 rubles / $.

Vitaly Gaidaev