Despite a gradual recovery in demand, prices for new buildings are almost not growing

Gradual recovery of demand for new buildings in Russia’s largest cities has not yet led to an increase in prices. The average cost of housing in the largest regional markets of the country shows insignificant dynamics, and in Moscow and St. Petersburg it even decreases slightly. Developers are correcting the declared prices, in particular, they are gradually abandoning the “near-zero mortgage”, the costs of which were included in the cost of the lots. Analysts are counting on a continued recovery in sales, but remind that the “primary” is still losing in price to the secondary segment. The rise in prices for new buildings on the market is not yet expected.

The average cost of primary real estate in the 18 largest regional markets of Russia (16 million-plus cities, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in June amounted to 144.6 thousand rubles. per sq. m, an increase over the month by 0.3%. Such data is provided by CIAN.Analytics. Experts call the dynamics near zero, recalling that in May prices fell by 0.2%, and in April they rose by 0.5%.

According to “Etazhi”, the average cost of “primary” in Russia as a whole is now 119.2 thousand rubles. per sq. m.

Over the month, the indicator decreased by 0.5%, but over the year it increased by 3.7%. Avito Real Estate analysts estimate the average cost of a lot in a Russian new building at 5.95 million rubles. Over the month, the value decreased by 0.7%, over the year – by 1.7%.

The most pronounced increase in prices in the primary market over the past month was observed in Volgograd, where, according to CIAN.Analytics, the average increased by 5.1%, to 99 thousand rubles. per sq. m. V Krasnodar growth amounted to 2.6%, up to 152.3 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Analysts of “Etazhy” noticed an increase in the cost of primary real estate by 1.9% per month in Novosibirsk, up to 107.1 thousand rubles. per sq. m. V Samara, according to the calculations of CIAN.Analitiki, the cost of the offer decreased by 6% over the month, to 114.7 thousand rubles. per sq. m. V Rostov-on-Don decrease by 2.2%, to 117.9 thousand rubles. per sq. m.

IN St. Petersburg new buildings are now exhibited at a rate of 230.9 thousand rubles. per sq. m. This is 0.3% higher than in May, according to CIAN.Analytics. The cost of an apartment in a new building in St. Petersburg, analysts at Avito Real Estate, is estimated at 8.1 million rubles, which is 5.9% lower than in June last year. IN Leningrad region the dynamics is also negative: minus 2.9% year-on-year, up to 5.4 million rubles. Simultaneously in Omsk, according to the company’s estimates, the average price of an apartment in a new building for the year increased by 24.7%, to 5.9 million rubles. IN Krasnodar growth amounted to 23%, up to 6.6 million rubles.

IN Moscow the average price, according to CIAN.Analytics, decreased by 0.4%, to 318.4 thousand rubles. per sq. m. The average cost of the lot here, according to Avito Real Estate, is now 13.9 million rubles. Over the year, the indicator increased by only 1.4%. IN Moscow region value decreased by 2.1%, to 7.25 million rubles.

The head of the primary direction of “Avito Real Estate” Dmitry Alekseev calls the demand for new buildings generally stable: user activity in June approximately corresponds to May. Compared to the same period last year, the increase was 24%. This revival does not yet allow developers to get away from discount programs: Mr. Alekseev notes that there are now special offers for 59% of exhibited lots. Most of them, according to him, in Krasnodar (79% of the total exposure), Chelyabinsk (78%), Kazan (78%) and Moscow (74%). The minimum values ​​are in Voronezh (10%), Novosibirsk (13%) and Krasnoyarsk (29%).

Director of Sales “Etazhy” Sergei Zaitsev does not rule out that the decline in average prices and discounts on new buildings due to the limitation of “near-zero rates” on mortgages.

“The developers included the commission to the banks for them in the price of housing, now this need has disappeared,” he explains. The expert believes that some developers are now quite actively advertising this reduction. Mr. Zaitsev considers the price correction as a generally positive trend, pointing out that it helps to stimulate demand. “Now potential buyers have begun to actively look at both finished housing with repairs due to the often cheaper price per square meter, and suburban real estate,” he argues.

The total volume of supply, according to Avito Nedvizhimost, increased by 51% over the year, and the growth in June compared to May was 6.3%. But in Moscow, St. Petersburg and adjacent regions, the volume of supply, according to the head of CIAN.Analitiki Alexei Popov, is stabilizing. So, in the Moscow agglomeration, buyers have been choosing from 115-118 thousand options for four months, in the St. Petersburg agglomeration – from 70-75 thousand. participation indicates a gradual increase in demand.

Dmitry Alekseev draws attention to the fact that the volume of supply in the primary market in Russia is growing faster than demand.

“Apparently, this explains the fact that the average cost of objects in the whole country is gradually decreasing,” he notes. Against this background, the expert does not exclude that the average cost of new buildings in Russia will continue to decline. Sergey Zaitsev draws attention to the fact that the price of new buildings as a whole continues to lose to the secondary market. The expert predicts further price stagnation. Aleksey Popov also predicts near-zero dynamics, while assuming that the number of transactions will continue to grow by 5-10% per month.

Alexandra Mertsalova