demand amounted to less than 145 billion rubles.

The placement of OFZs with a floating coupon, which is traditionally attractive for banks, went off without a record: demand amounted to less than 145 billion rubles, and the placement volume was slightly more than 40 billion rubles. The Ministry of Finance has traditionally cut off aggressive applications. At the same time, market participants placed orders at higher rates against the backdrop of expectations of a tightening of the Central Bank’s monetary policy.

A rare offer for this year of floating-rate bonds (OFZ-PK, floater) maturing in April 2035 did not cause a stir among the traditional buyers of these instruments – banks. Demand for OFZ-PK did not reach 145 billion rubles, and the placement volume did not exceed 43 billion rubles. This is noticeably worse than the result of the previous auction, which took place a month ago, when demand amounted to 261 billion rubles, as a result of which almost 76 billion rubles were placed. The last time floaters were placed so weakly was in October 2022, when demand fell short of RUB 77 billion, and the placement volume amounted to RUB 25 billion. At subsequent auctions, the volume of demand and placement most often exceeded several hundred billion rubles.

The Ministry of Finance cut off rather aggressive applications submitted by investors. But despite the fact that more than 70% of bids were not satisfied, the issuer had to reduce the cut-off price and the weighted average price.

According to Alexander Yermak, Chief Fixed Income Analyst at BC Region, the cut-off price was reduced by 5 basis points compared to the previous placement. p., and the weighted average price – by 30 bp. P.

“For the share of 12 large applications with a volume of up to 10 billion rubles. at face value accounted for more than 92% of the total,” notes Mr. Yermak.

Low demand was also noted in the placement of OFZs with a constant coupon (due in May 2041). The volume of demand amounted to 30.6 billion rubles, the volume of placement – 19.4 billion rubles, which is several times lower than in the first quarter. At the same time, Andrey Kulakov, Head of the Fixed Income Instruments Analysis Department at Gazprombank, noted that the premium to the secondary market in terms of the weighted average yield (10.87% per annum) amounted to 3 bp. p., to the level of Tuesday’s close – 6 bp. “The concentration of applications was high, the largest accounted for 44% of the placement, and the three largest – 77%,” he notes.

Market participants note that low demand for government bonds may be associated with increased risks – raising the key rate, geopolitical and budgetary. In recent weeks, representatives of the Central Bank have increasingly indicated that they will consider the feasibility of raising the key rate, the next meeting will be held next Friday. Mikhail Vasilyev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, expects the key rate to remain at 7.5% next week, but already at a meeting on July 21, he does not exclude that the Central Bank will increase the rate by 25 bp. p., up to 7.75%. “In the context of continued uncertainty regarding the conduct of monetary policy by the Bank of Russia until the end of this year and in anticipation of the next meeting of the regulator, investors are wary of long-term OFZ-PD and demand a higher OFZ-PK premium,” notes Alexander Yermak.

The low demand for OFZ-PK could also be facilitated by a decrease in free funds from large banks, the main buyers of this type of OFZ.

By the end of May, the liquidity surplus of credit institutions decreased to 381 billion rubles, while at the beginning of the month it exceeded 800 billion rubles, Mikhail Vasiliev points out. Maksim Chernega, head of the DCM department of the corporate finance department at Tsifra Broker, draws attention to the fact that under the current conditions, the Ministry of Finance itself is in no hurry to place OFZ-PK (where the coupon rate is pegged to current market rates.— “b”), because if the Central Bank tightens monetary policy and raises the rate, then you will have to pay more on obligations.

According to Andrei Kulakov, at the remaining four auctions this quarter, the department will have to raise an average of 78 billion rubles each. to complete the plan. This is quite an achievable target, although it is slightly higher than the average for this reporting period (67 billion rubles). At the same time, market participants do not expect changes in his tactics. “In the coming weeks, it will continue to offer rather conservatively floaters, classic OFZs and inflationary papers, cut off aggressive orders,” Mikhail Vasiliev believes.

Vitaly Gaidaev