Column by Alexandra Mertsalova about consumer skepticism towards new brands

“We do not and will not have any special problems with the provision of clothing,” Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Viktor Evtukhov said a little more than a year ago in an interview with Komsomolskaya Pravda, predicting the active development of Russian brands. Consumers may have believed, but they tried to play it safe: announcements of the closure of Western chains, which appeared one after another, traditionally led to long lines in their stores. There were plenty of reasons for panic, because Western brands formed 20–30% of the total number of tenants in high-quality shopping centers until last spring.

But formally, the official’s forecasts came true: a year and a half after the wave of closures, there are not so many empty spaces in retail properties. For example, based on the results of the third quarter of this year, Nikoliers analysts estimate the average vacancy rate in Moscow at 11.9%, which is already comparable to the 2021 level – 11.5%. NF Group expects 9% for the entire current year, which is even less than in 2020–2021.

Only from the point of view of consumers, everything is not so clear. Attendance at shopping centers in Moscow and St. Petersburg, according to Focus Technologies, is now only slightly higher than the level of last fall and is 9–11% behind the 2021 figures. The gap with 2019 is more than 20%. Simply opening stores was not enough to convince consumers to shop there more often.

Until now, the policy of many local brands, having received a new impetus for development, was based on the desire to replace departed players. “In general, as a company, we are very ambitious, and we want to be at least second after Zara. This is a fact,” RBC quoted Lime Marketing Director Ulyana Nichveeva in August 2022. But the bet doesn’t seem to have worked.

According to a September Platforma survey, only 23% of respondents believe that Russian clothing and footwear manufacturers have successfully replaced departed foreign brands, 33% have found replacements for imported food products, and 26% have found replacements for household goods. And the attitude towards stores of familiar Western brands that have opened under new signs remains wary: consumers are not always sure that the range and quality of things in them correspond to the usual ones, notes one of the participants in the retail real estate market.

And is it worth the task to look for analogues? A year and a half of sanctions taught consumers to adapt: ​​issue bank cards in neighboring countries, fly to Paris with a connection in Yerevan, order delivery of familiar goods through intermediaries. This means that the retail real estate market is faced with a new and less trivial task – to increase the quality of tenants by offering consumers not a replica of departed stores, but an original concept.