Coal transships to the south – Newspaper Kommersant No. 34 (7479) dated 02.28.
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Railway coal exports, including ship charter, remain profitable, according to Infoline data, but the situation in the ports of the north-west is worse than in other directions. It is most convenient and profitable now to supply coal to China and India through the ports of the Far East, but the development of loading is hindered by a lack of railway infrastructure. As a result, Taman in the south became the largest export port for coal in Russia in 2022. Taking into account the possibility of sending large batches of Capesize from there, the gap in profitability with the Far East has significantly decreased and now stands at only 10%.
Kommersant got acquainted with the Infoline report on export coal logistics. It follows from the document that coal supplies abroad through Russian ports in 2022 were profitable, despite the strengthening of the ruble, and remain so as of January. At the same time, the indicator differs greatly for different directions. So, the ports of the north-west became the least profitable, taking into account the cessation of exports to Europe. The profitability of export deliveries to India and China through Rosterminalugol (RTU, managed by UMMC) in the port of Ust-Luga was 3.8–6.7% in January, depending on the type of wagon, and through the Murmansk Commercial Sea Port (MMTP, included in NTK SUEK) — 8.1–10.4%. The highest profitability of exports to China and India was observed when delivered through the terminals of the Far East (22–25% depending on the terminal and the type of car).
At the same time, they specify in Infoline, the positions have significantly strengthened and the share in the overall structure of coal exports of the port of Taman has increased. The profitability of deliveries to China and India via Taman was 12.5–14.2% in January 2023. According to the agency, taking into account the difference in distance from June 2022, rail transportation of thermal coal in standard gondola cars through the port of Vostochny and the port of Vanino costs 26–30% more than through Taman, “and the cost of renting gondola cars, taking into account the actual turnover on routes were 30–40% higher.
The authors of the study see the main advantage of Taman as the fact that the port can load Capesize bulk carriers with a ship lot size of up to 220,000 tons. The cost of Capesize freight from Taman in terms of a ton is 1.2-1.6 times cheaper than in the ports of the north-west when shipping to China and 1.5-1.6 times cheaper when shipping to India. In the Far East, freight is several times cheaper (5-6 times when delivered to China), however, the study notes, in January, the difference in the marginality of exports through the ports of the Far East and Taman decreased by almost 1.6 times, to 10%.
The OTEKO terminal in Taman was the leader among others in terms of export transshipment of coal and was among the leaders in terms of its growth dynamics. In total, 30 million tons were transshipped through it, which is 32.1% more than a year earlier. OTEKO notes that transshipment in Taman is indeed growing steadily, “the dynamics of the past and current years are positive.” “The main competitive advantage of the southern route is its proximity to the promising markets of South Asia and the Asia-Pacific region,” the company explains, noting that the terminal’s infrastructure makes it possible to accumulate cargo in warehouses with a storage capacity of more than 2.5 million tons, to simultaneously load four Capesize class vessels to full draft, as well as provide a high speed of cargo handling.
Vostochny port ranked second in terms of coal transshipment in 2022 (an increase of 2.4%, to 25.6 million tons), and RTU was in third place (a drop of 11.7%, to 21.6 million tons). The leader in terms of growth in share terms is Vaninotransugol (VTU, Kolmar Group), where transshipment in 2022 increased by 67%, to 12.3 million tons.
Taking into account the transshipment rate, rail transportation to RTU and MMTP from the Kemerovo region remains profitable only if the price of coal is high (more than 7 thousand rubles per 1 ton on the FOB basis), the study notes, but we are talking about independent (not affiliated with terminals and major railway operators) suppliers. Coal companies that own terminals have higher margins due to captive rates.
“Transportation from the Kemerovo region decreased in 2022 and will not grow in 2023, they are constrained by infrastructural restrictions at the Eastern range and the position of Russian Railways, which gives priority to other cargo,” says Mikhail Burmistrov, head of Infoline-Analytics.— Growth in the Far East is associated with deliveries from regions east of Kuzbass, which is illustrated by the example of Daltransugol (DTU, part of the SUEK NTK and is in fourth place in the rating of terminals.— “b”) and WTU. Both ports are located in Vanino, but deliveries to DTU come from Kuzbass and there is a reduction in transshipment by 10.7%, to 19.1 million tons, while cargo for VTU is generated east of Kuzbass and volumes are growing.” At the same time, a Kommersant source familiar with the situation in Vanino says that the underload at the DTU against the background of an increase in loading at the VTU is associated with the regulation of loading by Russian Railways.
Meanwhile, for the railroad, the profitability of coal transportation has increased. As the president of the National Research Center for Transportation and Infrastructure Pavel Ivankin notes, now, after the abolition of reducing coefficients for coal export transportation, the transportation price does not yet cover their full cost, but it definitely covers variable costs (no comments were provided in the monopoly). But, the expert clarifies, since the cheapest tariff class was designed to cover variable costs, now, after the abolition of discounts, the conditions for transporting coal correspond to those of the first class.
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