Cheaper prices on the stock exchange – Newspaper Kommersant No. 168 (7369) of 09/13/2022

The exchange price of gasoline in early September, contrary to a long-term trend, is declining against the backdrop of a decrease in oil prices and the end of the rush summer season. Market participants and experts attribute the ongoing decline in fuel prices to its surplus, which arose back in the spring against the backdrop of problems with the export of petroleum products due to sanctions. According to experts, despite the cheaper fuel in the wholesale segment, there are no prerequisites for reducing its cost at filling stations.

The cost of AI-92 and AI-95 decreased on September 12 by 1.3% and 1.8%, to 42.8 thousand rubles. and 46.8 thousand rubles. per ton, respectively, according to the data of the exchange SPbMTSB. Fuel becomes cheaper against the backdrop of a decrease in demand on the stock exchange. In addition, oil prices, which fell below $95 per barrel in September, could have an impact on its value.

According to Rinat Fattakhov, vice-president of the Russian Fuel Union, the decline in gasoline prices is explained by stable large volumes of goods within the country. So, he notes, at oil depots in a number of regions even surpluses of goods were formed, including due to the fact that problems with the idle time of railway parties were solved. In addition, the industry is experiencing a seasonal decline in demand associated with the end of the warm season, Mr. Fattakhov adds. However, he believes, problems may arise with the provision of gas stations with diesel fuel on the eve of winter.

At the beginning of autumn, fuel prices usually rise against the backdrop of a decrease in supply due to the departure of refineries for scheduled repairs. A similar situation usually repeats itself in the spring, but this year, since February, fuel has become cheaper due to a surplus.

The reason is that under the conditions of sanctions and tacit restrictions on the purchase of Russian oil products, companies encountered problems when exporting them. The companies also sought to increase oil refining due to the possibility of receiving record damper payments against the backdrop of high oil prices.

Gasoline prices resumed growth only at the end of July against the backdrop of a decrease in the production of Gazprom plants – Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat and Surgut ZSK, which usually account for about 15% of the volume of gasoline exchange sales, but in August gasoline continued to fall in price. Market participants expected a rise in fuel prices due to a decrease in payments for the damper for gasoline since September 1.

Wholesale prices are going down amid falling demand for gasoline on the key site of the country’s wholesale market – SPIMEX, believes Maria Arie from Petromarket, if three weeks ago (for the period from August 22 to 26) the average daily sales of gasoline by manufacturers at SPIMEX was 42 thousand tons per day, then last week it fell to 32.6 thousand tons per day. At the same time, retail prices for gasoline did not react to the cheaper product in the wholesale channel, the expert clarifies, “there are no prerequisites for their tangible reduction now.”

Filling station operators, who traded fuel at a loss for almost the entire year 2021, do not seek to reduce retail prices following wholesale prices, compensating for the damage suffered earlier, Ms. Aryeh believes.

She notes that since the beginning of the year, the increase in prices for AI-92 and AI-95 at gas stations amounted to only 0.2% and 0.6% (from 47.43 rubles and 51.06 rubles per 1 liter to 47.51 rubles and 51.35 rubles per 1 liter), respectively, which is significantly lower than the current inflation rate (10.4%).

Dmitry Kozlov