Cargoes showed slenderness – Newspaper Kommersant No. 36 (7481) dated 03/02/2023

Loading on Russian railways in February increased year on year, that is, in relation to the last month before the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine and, accordingly, global changes in the Russian economy and logistics. Since then, traffic has mostly fallen. The change in trend was provided primarily by grain, construction and container cargo. Also moved from the fall to the growth of coal transportation. But railroad workers and experts look to the future without excessive optimism: the February results did not become the basis for revising the annual forecast for loading, according to the plan, it should fall by 1.2%.

According to the results of February, loading on the network of Russian Railways increased by 0.2% year-on-year, to 97.2 million tons. This is important because February 2022 was the last month when the consequences of the hostilities that began on February 24 in Ukraine did not affect the economy. It could be assumed that the figures for February 2022 were spoiled by the last days, lowering the base for comparison. But JSC Russian Railways assures that for the first 20 days of February the growth was 0.2%.

The main drivers of the increase, the monopoly explained, were construction cargo (an increase of 29.7% by February 2022 and by 24.3% by February 2021) “in the context of state support for the industry and high rates of road construction.”

“There is also a significant increase in grain loading – by almost 40%,” Russian Railways added. “This was facilitated by a record harvest in 2022 (an increase of 26.7% compared to 2021) and an increase in demand for Russian wheat on the world market.” At the end of February, JSC Russian Railways reported that the best result in terms of shipment on average per day is given by grain (97 thousand tons per day) and containers (130 thousand tons per day). At the same time, the loading of oil and oil products decreased by 3.4%, to 17.1 million tons, and that of ferrous metals, by 10.5%. The deepest failure is for timber cargo (loading drop by 21.4%), industrial raw materials (by 20%), chemicals and soda (by 14.3%).

At the same time, in February, the loading of the most massive cargo on the network, coal, increased by 2.3%, reaching 29.1 million tons.

So far, it has been declining: in January, for example, by 4.3% year-on-year. According to the investment program of JSC Russian Railways for 2023, coal transportation should fall by 8.3% in general, by 12.7% in export and by 3.3% in domestic traffic. JSC Russian Railways explained that the February growth is associated with an increase in loading in the northwestern (by 34%) and eastern (by 8.1%) directions.

The head of Infoline-Analytics, Mikhail Burmistrov, notes that since the end of January, especially intensifying in the second half of February, the ruble has been weakening, which provides exporters of coal and other commodities with “additional opportunities in the field of organizing logistics.” According to the expert, the main growth in shipments occurred in the northwest.

At the end of January, Alexei Shilo, Deputy General Director of Russian Railways OJSC, noted that as a result of the fact that coal miners managed to improve the situation with freight, this cargo again went through the ports of the north-west (see “Kommersant” dated January 26). Loading of coal through the port of Taman in the south increased by 32.1% in 2022 and continues to grow, however, Mikhail Burmistrov notes that infrastructure restrictions remain in the south, as well as in the Eastern landfill.

At the same time, according to Mr. Burmistrov, the increase in loading in February is rather a local story, which is unlikely to affect the results of the year in terms of loading. In general, in 2023 Russian Railways expects a decrease in loading by 1.2%, to 1.2 billion tons.

The monopoly Kommersant was informed that, based on the February figures, the forecast is not planned to be revised.

Mikhail Burmistrov adds that a separate challenge for Russian Railways and the largest shippers may be “the increased, judging by recent events, the level of terrorist threat for infrastructure facilities and hazardous industries, which is equivalent to new potential infrastructure restrictions.”

Natalya Skorlygina