by the evening of August 7, the fall of the Russian currency slowed down

The exchange rate of the ruble is stabilizing: by the evening of August 7, the rates of the leading currencies rolled back by 1-2% from the peaks reached at the beginning of the day. This happened against the background of an increase in the volume of trading in the yuan, which reached 180 billion rubles, the second largest result in history. Analysts attribute the high trading volumes and the temporary strengthening of the ruble to the local supply of Chinese currency from exporters. However, it will not be able to seriously change the balance of power in the foreign exchange market.

An attempt to continue the game to lower the Russian currency did not continue. If at the beginning of the main session of the Moscow Exchange on August 7 the dollar exchange rate rose above 97.06 rubles / $, having updated the maximum since March 23 last year, then, according to its results, it stopped at around 95.28 rubles / $, by 40 kopecks. lower than the previous day’s close. Euro exchange ratewhich rose to 106.62 rubles/€ during trading, at the end of the day stopped at 105.3 RUB/€, for 30 kop. below Friday’s close. Yuan exchange rate grew by 1% to RUB 13.47/CNY, but ended the day at RUB 13.24/CNY0.7% lower than the previous day’s close.

The movement of unfriendly currencies took place at the average activity of investors – the volume of trading in dollars with delivery “tomorrow” amounted to 107 billion rubles, which is 5 billion rubles. lower than Friday. Euro trading volumes slightly exceeded the result of Friday, approaching 37 billion rubles. At the same time, the volume of yuan trading grew by more than 40% during the day, to 178 billion rubles, showing the second result in the history of trading.

Similar anomalies in the first ten days of the month have already been this year – April 7, May 5 and 10, July 6 (a record volume of 240 billion rubles, the number of transactions for the first time exceeded 100 thousand). Mikhail Vasilyev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, attributes the sharp increase in yuan trading volume to the sale of foreign exchange earnings by individual exporters. Apparently, these shipments were aimed at Asian buyers, as there was no noticeable increase in trading volumes with dollars and euros.

According to the Central Bank, only from January to May, the share of “toxic” currencies in exports decreased from 48% to 33%, while the share of the yuan increased from 15.7% to 24.6%.

“Perhaps companies are realizing the currency to finance other expenses besides taxes (traditionally paid in the third decade of the month.— “b”) — salaries, rent, investments, etc.,” notes Mr. Vasiliev.

However, such sales, although they have a strong impact on the ruble exchange rate, cannot reverse the negative trend of recent months, as they can hardly compensate for the high demand for foreign currency from importers. PSB Chief Analyst Denis Popov draws attention to the market imbalance due to uneven incoming and outgoing foreign exchange flows, causing local deficits of a particular currency. Currently, there is a sharp deficit in the yuan, which leads to an increase in the cost of swaps in this currency. According to the Moscow Exchange, the one-day swap rate has been above 7.7% per annum for a week already, near the maximum since the beginning of autumn.

Some pressure on the market will be provided by purchases of the Chinese currency within the framework of the fiscal rule. From Monday, the Central Bank in the interests of the Ministry of Finance will buy yuan for 1.8 billion rubles daily. Even taking into account the “mirror” sale of foreign currency in the amount of 2.3 billion rubles. net sales will decrease from 4 billion rubles. (in July) to 0.5 billion rubles. (in August). “This amount is unlikely to be decisive for the dynamics of exchange rates, since it is less than 0.5% of the average daily trading volume of yuan for rubles,” said Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank.

Under the current conditions, analysts allow further weakening of the ruble.

According to Denis Popov, in the next six months, the yuan exchange rate will be 13.5–14 rubles/CNY, the dollar rate will be 95–100 rubles/$.

He notes the possibility of rising to higher values, but “there is no reason to gain a foothold on them yet.” According to Vladimir Evstifeev, as the values ​​of 98–100 rubles/$ are approached, speculative activity will decrease, while the intention to fix profits will increase. On approaching this range, the expert notes, there is a risk of a reaction from the authorities, which may cool the speculative mood.

Vitaly Gaidaev