Business looks into offices – Newspaper Kommersant No. 44 (7489) of 03/16/2023
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The volume of transactions for renting and buying offices in Moscow in the first quarter of 2023 will be 1.5 times lower than last year, but analysts are talking about signs of recovery in the market: new transactions are concluded mainly by state-owned companies and industrialists. The growing share of vacant premises due to the outflow of international business is forcing owners to agree to discounts.
In the first quarter of 2023, Moscow is expected to conclude transactions for the lease and purchase of office real estate with an area of about 200 thousand square meters. m against 348 thousand square meters. m for the same period a year earlier. This forecast is given by Asterus. Despite the decrease in value, analysts call the result positive, as deals are formed exclusively by new demand. Denis Bobkov, head of the Asterus analytics department, says that 72%, or 250,000 sq. m. m, the total volume of transactions in the first quarter of 2022 was provided by transfers from 2021. A similar trend was noted by CORE.XP Senior Analyst Evgeny Tomilov, pointing out that now we are talking only about new deals. Stone Hedge added that since the beginning of the year, the volume of transactions with class A offices has reached 140 thousand square meters. m, which is 35% higher than last year.
Since the beginning of 2023, there has been an increase in business activity in the office market of Moscow: companies that previously took a wait-and-see position conclude deals, says Remain CEO Dmitry Klapsha. The implementation of pent-up demand was also noticed by the deputy director of the Nikoliers office real estate department, Elena Medushushskaya, calling state-owned companies, departments, IT and the industrial sector active. “The demand for the purchase of high-end offices has not changed compared to the end of 2022, which can already be considered a positive signal,” says Vasily Kvlividze, commercial director of Coldy.
Nevertheless, NF Group partner Maria Zimina predicts an increase in the share of vacant office space by 0.5-1.5 percentage points compared to the end of last year. Then in class A, 13% of the space was empty, in class B – 7.4%. Vacancy is also affected by the continued release of space due to the reduction in the presence of foreign companies in Russia, says Denis Bobkov. Because of this, in the segment of class A offices, the share of vacant space by the end of the year, according to his forecasts, may reach 20% against the market average of 10-12%. The expert expects a decrease in the indicator only in 2024-2025. As Mr. Bobkov noted, local demand will not be able to fully compensate for the mass exodus of foreign companies. Dmitry Klapsha also knows about the premises of international companies that should be released and are already being marketed on the market.
The level of requested rental rates for offices in Moscow remains stable, according to NG Group. Class A premises now cost an average of 26 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m per year, B – 17.6 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m per year. But the difference between asking and actual rates could be widening, says Mr. Tomilov. According to him, the ongoing uncertainty and high vacancy rates contribute to the flexibility of landlords in the negotiation process. Mr. Klapsha considers it possible to reduce the requested rates by 10%. Ekaterina Belova, head of the office space department at IBC Real Estate, knows cases of price reductions of 5-10%, but, according to her, this is more likely to be spotty.
Based on the dynamics of the beginning of the year, Asterus predicts that the total volume of transactions with offices in Moscow this year will be at the level of 1 million square meters. m, exceeding last year’s figure by 15-20%. Developers, according to Mr. Kvlividze, are not completely refusing to launch new office proposals on the market, and activity will grow. “Given the small amount of commissioning in Moscow, there remains a certain shortage of high-quality offices for sale,” he says. Stone Hedge believes that a prerequisite for the growth of the office market is the adaptation of business to new conditions: Russian players are interested in consolidating divisions within a single facility, which supports end-user demand for offices under construction.
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