Business is chasing the rate – Kommersant FM
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Expensive loans with stable incomes: businessmen interviewed by Kommersant FM assessed the effect of the Central Bank’s monetary policy. On October 27, the regulator raised the key rate for the fourth time in a row. Now it is 15%, although back in July the figure was 8.5%. Some entrepreneurs believe that this decision will force many domestic companies to abandon new projects due to too expensive loans. However, not all Kommersant FM interlocutors are so pessimistic. What consequences does business expect? Ivan Khorushevsky sorted it out.
The cost of business loans will rise following the key rate only in two weeks. This is usually how long banks take to review their policies. But businessmen are already worried. The debt burden for many companies will become unbearable, which means they will have to refuse to raise borrowed funds for the development of new projects, notes the owner of a network of points for issuing orders from marketplaces, Artem Bobtsov:
“If the key rate is 15%, this means that loans will increase to 20%. For organizations in which banks see great risks, rates will be even higher – 20-25%. At some point, a business will stop taking out loans because the cost of the loan will be higher than what the company will earn. There is no need to talk about expansion. For example, we considered the possibility of lending for the purchase of other order delivery points, but stopped this after the banks made us an offer at the level of 20-21% per annum.”
Businesses will have to rely solely on income from the sale of goods and services. This means that companies will be forced to raise prices. This will cool consumer demand, reduce business activity in the country, but over time will lead to a slowdown in inflation. As a matter of fact, this is the scenario the Central Bank is counting on. But the founder of the Top Gun barbershop chain, Alexey Lokontsev, has other expectations:
“The rate changes so often that it’s impossible to keep up with it. Therefore, we immediately set the price for several raises in advance. We are preparing a price increase in February 2024 by 10-15%. The revenue from this is still growing.
People don’t stop taking care of themselves and going to barbershops. I have a goal to open a thousand Top Gun stores in the next five years. I believe that my plans are feasible and do not depend on external factors.”
The Central Bank also raised the key rate in the hope of preventing another stage of devaluation of the ruble, economists are sure, although the regulator itself does not admit this. Importers will benefit from the strengthening of the national currency: loans for them, of course, will also become more expensive, but goods will become cheaper. In any case, this is exactly what businesses hoped for in the summer, when the Central Bank just began to tighten monetary policy. Since then, optimism in the market has diminished, complains Fortwine executive director Alexander Lipilin:
“It has been stated that the rate is being raised, including to curb the exchange rate. But after the previous decision of the Central Bank, the value of the national currency has not changed much. The result was not commensurate with the negative effect of the increase. Here, I think it will be the same, plus or minus. Maybe, in combination with the mandatory sale of proceeds, this will somehow work better, because, of course, if the exchange rate falls, then this will help us.”
However, the decision of the Central Bank, in theory, should hit mortgage and consumer lending the most painfully. The regulator has repeatedly stated that there is overheating in this market and the need for cooling. Builders, however, did not feel the effect of the Central Bank’s actions, assures the founder of GoodWood, Alexander Dubovenko:
“Standard mortgage loans were quite expensive even before the rate increase – about 15% – this is a completely unaffordable rate. And, of course, no one took them. Loans with state support were actively processed. If preferential lending is stopped, then this will lead to a collapse for the construction industry, because this will reduce demand by two to three times.
But, most likely, like last time, they will simply tighten the conditions and increase the down payment, for example, by 2%.”
The regulator, however, made it clear that if the rate of price growth and lending does not fall, monetary policy will become even tighter. In any case, the regulator will soften it no earlier than 2024. Businessmen, in turn, are ready for the key rate to remain high for at least another year.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
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