Build on your own – Kommersant

The restructuring of logistics and reorientation to new suppliers led to a reduction in the cost of construction of industrial and commercial real estate. Developers’ costs have decreased by 5-20% compared to the peak values ​​of the previous year, having actually returned to the level of 2021. This allows businesses to more easily predict the prospects for investment projects, but does not lead to an increase in their number. The reason is the limited demand for such real estate.

The average cost of building class A dry warehouses in Moscow and the region in April amounted to 50 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, decreasing by 20% year-on-year, calculated in NF Group. They add that the indicator has actually returned to the level of spring 2021.

Alexey Smerdov, Investment Director of Parus Asset Management, also noticed a significant reduction in construction costs. According to him, now the construction of a warehouse costs 45-47 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, a shopping center – 80-100 thousand rubles, a class A office – 120-150 thousand rubles. Alexander Nikulin, technical director of CORE.XP construction project management, talks about cost reductions of 5-7%.

The sharp rise in construction costs has ended, the cost will increase only taking into account inflation, says NF Group partner Konstantin Fomichenko. He attributes this to the absence of significant new Western sanctions and the preservation of the key rate by the Central Bank. Alexander Nikulin draws attention to the stabilization of the cost of building materials and the localization of part of the production.

Nikoliers partner Igor Temnyshev recalls that last year’s jump in the cost of construction of commercial real estate was associated with the restructuring of logistics chains, an increase in the cost of delivering materials. Equipment and labor costs account for 85-90% of the project’s budget, he said. Now the business has found new suppliers, refocusing on Asian and Middle Eastern companies, the expert says.

According to NF Group, the cost of warehouses is primarily affected by the costs of constructive solutions and engineering networks (30% each), waterproofing, facades and coatings (10% each). According to the observations of consultants, since August 2022, a noticeable increase in prices has occurred only for metal structures, the cost of excavation has decreased by 15-30%, dock equipment – by 20%. CMWP partner Pavel Yakimchuk says currency fluctuations are an important factor right now. Pridex Commercial Director Alexander Aleinikov recalls that the cost of components from Turkey and China is tied to the exchange rate.

Stable construction costs allow developers to better predict the process of implementing an investment project. But this dynamics does not yet lead to a significant increase in construction activity. According to the CORE.XP forecast, this year 1.2 million warehouse space will be commissioned in Moscow and the Moscow region, which is 29.4% lower yoy. Commissioning of office real estate may remain at the level of last year (about 350,000 sq.m.), retail real estate will amount to 80,000 sq.m. m against 147 thousand square meters. m a year earlier, counted in CMWP. “The development of commercial real estate is clearly not in an active phase right now,” notes Alexei Smerdov. At the same time, new office buildings in Moscow are now being built by housing developers as part of their obligations to the mayor’s office.

In general, the dynamics of construction depends on demand, and in the short term its growth is not predicted, Alexander Nikulin explains. While the expert expects to reduce the number of new projects. The profitability of objects, according to his estimates, now averages 10-20%. For commercial projects, this figure, according to the general director of West Wind Group Konstantin Martynychev, is now lower than for housing. Rental rates are not growing, but somewhere they are even declining, notes Remain CEO Dmitry Klapsha. According to him, potential tenants expect flexibility from the owners and are not always ready to sign long-term contracts that were distributed earlier. “The warehouses are again actively discussing construction projects for a specific tenant or buyer,” the expert states. Mr. Yakimchuk agrees that such projects will noticeably push back speculative construction.

Alexandra Mertsalova