Bloomberg: Iran will supply up to 93 million barrels of oil to the market if sanctions are lifted

Iran is ready to put a large amount of oil on the market if sanctions are lifted from the country’s oil and gas sector. About 93 million barrels of Iranian oil is stored in tankers in the Persian Gulf, off the coast of Singapore and near China, according to data from the analytical company Kpler, cited by Bloomberg. At the same time, the analytical company Vortexa Ltd. estimates the volume of the country’s oil harvested in tankers at 60-70 million barrels.

Iran has 48 million barrels in above-ground storage facilities, according to Kpler. The company estimates that even more of the country’s oil could be in above-ground storage facilities across China.

“Iran has built up a massive oil reserve that could be brought to market fairly quickly,” said JTD Energy Services Pte analyst John Driscoll (quoted from Bloomberg). However, according to him, insurance and shipment of goods will take some time. He also noted that Iran’s desire to start deliveries to Europe is “quite natural”, as the country wants to fill the void in the market that arose after the imposition of sanctions against Russia. At the same time, according to Mr. Driscoll, in the future, Iran will concentrate oil supplies to Asian countries.

In 2017 and 2018, Europe bought from Iran an average of 748,000 barrels per day (b/d) and 528,000 b/d. respectively. Asia in the same period – about 1.2 million b/d and 1 million b/d.

As before reported Bloomberg, the signing of an agreement between Iran and the United States on the resumption of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the Iranian nuclear program is expected in the near future. This will lead to the lifting of sanctions against Iran and return the access of Iranian oil to the market. According to the agency, the parties may reach an agreement in the next few weeks. Among other things, Iran is waiting for economic guarantees in case the US withdraws from the deal, and Washington is seeking international experts’ access to Tehran’s past activities in the nuclear field.

The JCPOA was signed by Iran and five members of the UN Security Council – China, Russia, Britain, France, the United States, plus Germany – in 2015. The parties agreed to lift anti-Iranian sanctions in exchange for limiting the nuclear program. As part of the agreement, Iran allowed IAEA inspectors to visit the country’s nuclear facilities, and most of the Iranian enriched uranium was to be exported abroad. In 2018, the 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump, pulled out of the deal, resuming the policy of sanctions pressure on Iran.

Read more about the renewal of the agreement – in the material “Kommersant” “Enmity – do not spill water”

Lusine Balasyan