Big data has been re-evaluated

The big data market in the Russian Federation under the baseline development scenario will grow to 319 billion rubles. by the end of 2024, the Association of Big Data Market Participants (BDA) believes. They developed several scenarios, the worst of which involves the transfer of the market to the “mobilization economy” – that is, monopolization and the assignment of state tasks to large companies. The ABA, however, believes that the market will grow in this case. Experts generally doubt that the digital registration of military servicemen will seriously affect the situation with big data in Russia, since this system will work outside the market field.

“Kommersant” got acquainted with the presentation of the ABD (which unites Yandex, VK, Rostelecom, MegaFon, etc.) of the market development strategy developed by it until the end of 2024. The Association presented five possible scenarios, the target one implies the growth of the market from 170 billion rubles. in 2021 (data for 2022 are not provided) to 319 billion rubles. For its implementation, it is necessary that the IT market be a “priority for the state”, and services and solutions in the field of big data should be distributed to other segments. It is necessary to stimulate domestic demand for solutions, as well as to ensure the partial replacement of foreign software by Russian.

The worst, “crisis” scenario will come if the state pursues a “policy of the “mobilization economy”” in the field of big data, and citizens are ready to share only minimal information. Under this scenario, the big data market in Russia, according to ABD, will amount to 189 billion rubles. by the end of 2024. In accordance with the amendments to seven federal laws adopted by the State Duma on April 12, an electronic register of military registration will be formed, including passport data of citizens, addresses of registration and residence, phone number, data on place of work and health status, as well as other information.

The best scenario (forecast of the market size is 441 billion rubles), in particular, implies the emergence in Russia of an institution of insurance against personal data leaks in favor of their subjects. This idea was considered by the Ministry of Digital Development (see Kommersant dated November 7, 2022).

“In order to reach consensus on key areas of development,” the strategy is now being discussed with the presidential administration, the Ministry of Digital Development, the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the State Duma and the Federation Council, Kommersant was told in the ABD. The Ministry of Digital Development says that they submitted their proposals to the ADB, and also agreed with business to develop a joint project for the preparation of IT analytics: “It should fill the niche of industry analytics, which was formed after a number of Western agencies left the market.” The office of Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko added that methodological recommendations are being developed and agreed on for managing data of state information systems (GIS) operating on the Gostekh platform. In other authorities, “Kommersant” did not answer.

A Kommersant source close to the development of the project says that the “mobilization economy” in the field of big data meant the monopolization of the market by the state, increasing the burden placed on large market players – “in particular, by imposing tasks on business from the state.” He clarified that it is not yet possible to assess the market in 2022, since “not all players have provided reports.”

According to Fortune Business Insights, the global big data market was $271.83 billion in 2022 and is growing at 13.4% annually. In Russia, it will also grow in any case, although not at such a high pace as it could without the departure of foreign players, Karen Kazaryan, general director of the Internet Research Institute, believes: “Yandex and VK will continue to work and develop one way or another.” At the same time, he believes that people’s fears associated with the introduction of digital agendas will hardly affect the volume of the market, since “the issue is not in collecting data, but in using them.”

Yuri Litvinenko