Bank clients are gradually increasing the maturity of deposits
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Bank clients are gradually increasing the maturity of their deposits. Trying to fix the current high rates, citizens began to more often choose deposits for a period of six months, gradually shifting the investment horizon. Increased inflation and decreased predictability of expenses, as well as expectations of a further increase in the key rate, prevent clients from trusting banks for a significantly longer period.
In November, there is a redistribution of demand according to the maturity of deposits, according to research data from the Banki.ru analytical center. Short deposits are losing popularity. Thus, according to statistics, when searching for deposits through the Banki.ru service, the shares of three-month and annual deposits decreased by 2 percentage points (pp.), to 29% and 19%, respectively. At the same time, they retained their positions in first and third places. The share of requested deposits for a period of one month decreased by 1 percentage point, to 12%.
At the same time, the demand for six-month deposits is growing for the second month in a row, their share increased by 3 percentage points, to 26%. At the end of the month, such deposits retained second position in the ranking. Moreover, there has been a moderate flow of demand into deposits with a maturity of more than a year. In total, the share of such contributions in searches in November exceeded 10% for the first time in a year and a half. At the end of the month, the indicator added 2 percentage points, rising to 11%.
“The upward trend in demand for long-term deposits may continue in the coming months,” the study says. “Some citizens will want to lock in high rates for a long period.”
Statistics for banks are somewhat different, but also confirm the extension of deposit terms. More than half of Pochta Bank depositors (54%) choose semi-annual deposits in November-December, their share increased by 10 percentage points compared to August. “If in August-October, in conditions of high volatility in the market and expectations of a further increase in the key rate , clients preferred to place their savings for a short period of three months, today we are seeing a flow of funds from short-term deposits to medium-term ones,” noted Aleksey Okhorzin, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Post Bank. “They are distinguished by an optimal combination of placement period and attractive rates and allow you to lock in high returns and at the same time flexibly manage your savings if the market situation changes.”
At VTB, the portfolio of ruble deposits is now evenly distributed between four key maturities: three and six months, one year and three years, each of which takes up about 25%. Alfa Bank says that deposits for four and six months are in greatest demand, since they have “interesting rates.”
“Deposits for six months are the most popular among our clients, but we see an increase in demand for longer periods,” notes Irina Baranova, director of the department of transaction and savings retail business at Rosbank. “This is naturally due to clients’ expectation of a reduction in rates in 2024 and the desire to save high rate for a longer period.”
According to Ms. Baranova, now deposit rates are “at a very high level, which certainly stimulates the savings activity of clients.”
On Monday, two large banks at once, without waiting for the Central Bank’s decision to increase the key rate at the end of the week, increased the maximum yield on deposits: MTS Bank – to 16% and Post Bank – to 17%. The arithmetic average of the maximum rates on deposits of the top 10 banks, according to Central Bank estimates, at the end of November was 13.64%.
Experts expect the next round of rate increases after the Central Bank’s decision on the rate. “According to our data, some banks are already raising rates by 1 point and are planning in advance to do this immediately from December 15–18,” says Masha Tatarintseva, manager of the “Deposits” product at the Sravni.ru financial marketplace.
At the same time, notes Natalia Bogomolova, junior director of bank ratings at the NRA, there are also factors limiting the growth of the duration of deposits. “The population, moving to a savings model, does not seek to open deposits for too long a period,” she says. According to the managing director of the Expert RA rating agency, Yuri Belikov, the behavior of depositors is also influenced by increased inflation and decreased predictability of expenses.
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