average prices increased by 8–9%

High demand for budget apartments led to a pronounced seasonal increase in the average cost of long-term rental housing: by August, average prices increased by 8–9%, but mainly due to changes in the supply structure. Over the month, the volume of exposure in the largest regional markets decreased by almost 20%. The peak of demand has already passed, but high activity of tenants in the market will continue for another month and a half. By the end of the year, the equalization of rates will be facilitated by the growth of exposure, in particular, due to the entry of investment apartments into the market and the decision of some owners to postpone the sale of housing.

The average cost of renting one-room apartments in the 18 largest regional markets of Russia (16 cities with a population of over a million, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in September amounted to 26.1 thousand rubles, two-room apartments – 39.1 thousand rubles. For a month these indicators grew up by 9% and 8% respectively. Such data are provided in CIAN.Analytics. According to Etazhi’s calculations, over the past month the average cost of renting one-room apartments in the largest cities increased by 3.5%, to 22.2 thousand rubles. per month. Over the same period, two-room apartments rose in price by 3.2%, to 26.9 thousand rubles. per month. Avito Real Estate notes that the average rental rate for long-term real estate in Russia as a whole is now 26 thousand rubles. Over the month, the value increased by 4%, over the year – by 13%.

The pronounced dynamics of average prices is usual for the high autumn season: in 2018 and 2019, rates during this period increased by 4% per month, in 2020 – by 7%, in 2021 – by 10%, notes the head of CIAN.Analytics Alexey Popov. Last year was an exception: external shocks brought to lower rates. The fluctuations are explained by high demand: over the month, according to CIAN.Analytics, there were 19% fewer offers in the database.

The head of the long-term rental category at Avito Real Estate, Konstantin Kamenev, speaks of a reduction in the number of lots by 7% per month and by 18% year-on-year.

The strong dispersion in the dynamics of average prices across regions, according to Mr. Popov, indicates that the dynamics of indicators are influenced to a greater extent by changes in the supply structure, and not by the prices of the exhibited lots. So, in Samara One-room apartments, according to his calculations, have risen in price by an average of 23% in four weeks, to 25 thousand rubles. per month. In Volgograd the growth was 18%, to 21.2 thousand rubles. per month. Simultaneously in Ufa the indicator decreased by 3%, to 18.9 thousand rubles. per month. Etazhi noticed a slight decrease in average prices for one-room apartments in Omsk – by 0.5% over four weeks, to 16.9 thousand rubles. A In Nizhniy Novgorod the rate increased by 5.9%, to 22 thousand rubles. per month, analysts noted.

In Moscow, according to calculations by CIAN.Analytics, a one-room apartment now costs an average of 51.1 thousand rubles. per month. By August, the figure increased by 11%, compared to the same period last year – by 3%. Oksana Polyakova, deputy director of the rental department of the Inkom-Real Estate company, also calls the fluctuation in average rates in Moscow mechanical: budget options quickly leave the base, while more expensive ones remain. This phenomenon, according to her, is a common seasonal trend, which is a little more pronounced this year.

“Demand was focused on the most affordable offers all year, as a result, by the fall there were almost no such properties left,” says Ms. Polyakova.

Against this background, the minimum rental price within the boundaries of “old” Moscow increased from 25 thousand to 30 thousand rubles in a month. per month. The share of lots in the category of 30–36 thousand rubles. per month, according to Ms. Polyakova, now accounts for only 6% of the exposure. Overall, the number of available options on the market is now 115% lower than in the same period last year, she notes.

In the segment of high-budget housing in Moscow, average prices over the past month have changed slightly, but discounts have practically disappeared, says Vladimir Rodionov, head of the rental department at Apple Real Estate. “We see active demand that has returned to normal and corresponds to the market: the expats who left have been replaced by local top managers and regional businesses who rent housing from 300 thousand rubles,” he argues. The trend, according to the expert, has led to a reduction in exposure in the high-budget segment by 20% per year.

In regional markets in general, according to Olga Pavlinova, director of the Etazhey rental department, there is now a noticeable acute shortage of affordable rental supply. But the peak of high demand for long-term rentals has already passed, says Alexey Popov, noting that in August the volume of exposure was declining faster. Maximum audience activity, he said, was also recorded in the third week of last month. Ms. Pavlinova also notices stabilization, although demand, according to her, is still high.

Oksana Polyakova explains that high activity in Moscow will continue for another month and a half. This could lead to a short-term price increase of 10–15%, but by winter demand will weaken, and owners will have to reduce prices by the same 10–15%.

The expert does not rule out that there will be more offers on the market: many are investing in secondary real estate to preserve their savings.

Ms. Pavlinova adds that along with rising rates, landlords who had previously planned to sell their properties are returning to the market. “Now they are not in a hurry with transactions: they rent out apartments and wait for a buyer to appear who is ready to buy at an affordable price,” she says. It is with the gradual increase in exposure on the market that average prices will begin to decline, notes Mr. Popov. “Judging by the current dynamics, this will take at least another three to four weeks, and the final increase in rates at the end of the seasonal peak will be plus 12–14% from the base values ​​​​at the beginning of summer,” he argues.

Alexandra Mertsalova