At the end of the second day of trading, Astra shares rose by almost 70%

According to the results of the second day of trading, shares of the Astra company increased in price by almost 70% compared to the level at the IPO, and in terms of volume they were among the leaders. Investors are reacting to the company’s good financial results, secured by an almost monopoly position in certain segments of IT solutions, and are also winning back a significant discount to peers when placing.

On Monday, October 16, shares of the Astra company, which held an IPO last week, were the leaders in trading on the Moscow Exchange. Their quotes soared by 20%, to 560 rubles. per security, and during the trading session reached 651.7 rubles, almost twice the placement price (333 rubles). The volume of transactions exceeded 10.9 billion rubles, losing only to the indicator of Sberbank. Last Friday, the volume of exchange trading in Astra shares was only about 400 million rubles, but, according to the head of the corporate finance department of the Financial Group Finam, Alexey Kurasov, that day the bar was set – it was impossible to sell above 450 rubles, so many investors took a break until Monday.

Market participants assess the current levels of Astra quotes positively. Artem Outlev, an analyst at Ingosstrakh-Investments Management Company, notes that the market capitalization is 115 billion rubles. slightly exceeds analysts’ consensus forecast. However, the company’s business may show strong financial results by the end of 2023, which could return the value of the multiples to acceptable levels and have an additional positive impact on the company’s stock price, he believes. Tsifra Broker analyst Daniil Bolotskikh believes that “if we compare the company with its global peers, the placement price looks fair: the average EV/EBITDA of competitors is 16.3, and Astra’s valuation is 19.3. In terms of performance dynamics, it compares favorably: the revenue growth rate is 166%, compared to the industry average of about 34%.” Independent financial analyst Andrei Barkhota believes that Astra is guaranteed demand for its products for at least two to three years in conditions of import substitution, and the company’s market position is close to a monopoly. According to CNews, in 2022, the sales leader in Russian operating systems was Astra Linux (75.9%), significantly ahead of its competitors Alt (12.5%) and Red OS (9.5%). At the same time, Astra is one of the few Russian public companies in the IT sector; market participants name the Positive Technologies group as a somewhat close analogue. A representative of Marvel Distribution clarified that from the OS point of view, Astra’s competitors are Basalt, Red OS, and ROSA. In the backup segment, this is Cyberprotect. In the segment of database management systems, competing solutions are presented by Postgres Pro, Sberbank, and Arenadata, notes a company representative.

This is the first time such an offering of shares is taking place in Russia and may initiate a local boom in IPOs of companies from the sectors of cloud technologies, database management systems and e-commerce, Finam notes.

The IPO of the Ozon marketplace had a similar effect on the market at the end of 2020 – every electronic store thought that the stock market could value the company much more expensive than strategic investors, they added.

However, Kommersant’s interlocutors see a number of risks for Astra’s securities. The highest, according to Mr. Bolotskikh, is the risk of outflow of personnel abroad. “Software development is always associated with highly qualified specialists, and their outflow can negatively affect the company’s product line,” he notes. Another risk for the company could be the return of foreign vendors to the Russian market, Mr. Outlev does not rule out.

Ksenia Kulikova, Timofey Kornev