Analysts downgrade forecast for this year’s food delivery market by 20%

The Infoline agency revised its forecast for the growth of the market for online purchases of food and essential goods from 800 billion to 600-620 billion rubles, its CEO Mikhail Burmistrov told Vedomosti. He clarifies that, most likely, the turnover of this segment will be closer to the lower limit of the range, which is explained by the deteriorating economic environment.

The agency Data Insight also lowered the forecast for this market. Initially, it expected that by the end of the year its volume would amount to 703 billion rubles. (558 million orders). Now its analysts believe that the total turnover of this segment will be at the level of 554 billion rubles. (390 million orders).

Data Insight senior analyst Olga Pashkova clarifies that sales in the II and III quarters were lower than in the first quarter, which is explained by the March rush demand. Similar figures are cited by the president of the Association of Internet Trade Companies Artem Sokolov. According to him, the market volume at the end of 2022 is 600 billion rubles. is quite real, given that in the first nine months the amount of food purchases on the Internet amounted to 455.4 billion rubles. The most modest figures for this category were recorded in the summer, which is primarily due to seasonal changes in demand, says Sokolov.

Restrictions in the operation of the Sberbank and Yandex ecosystems had a significant impact on the online food retail market, according to an Infoline report. Due to the imposed sanctions, they were forced to limit their marketing activity. In addition, they had to focus on achieving breakeven for each order against the backdrop of a general decline in demand, as well as mobilization and emigration of the population, which reduced the number of customers (especially in the Moscow region, St. Petersburg and other million-plus cities).