Advertising is getting stronger in non-print terms – Newspaper Kommersant No. 55 (7500) of 03/31/2023

According to the results of 2023, advertising sales in Russia will grow by 17.3%, to 656.6 billion rubles, according to Okkam. Other market participants are talking about an increase of 5-15%. But the print media, which has already lost 41% of its advertising revenue in 2022, will face a further fall of 25%, players warn. According to them, advertisers are more willing to buy ads from video platforms and bloggers. The representatives of the media market themselves, however, expect an increase in advertising revenue by 5–10% due to large Russian companies.

According to the forecast of the Okkam agency, which Kommersant got acquainted with, the advertising market in Russia by the end of 2023 could grow by 17.3%, to 656.6 billion rubles. A similar opinion is shared by the buying director of NMi Group Dmitry Vinogradov, believing that by the end of the year the increase could be up to 15%. “In the absence of new global negative factors,” sales growth could be about 13%, says Mikhail Eliseikin, director of trading and media partnerships at Group4Media. OMD OM Group has the most conservative estimate: they say that by the end of 2023 the advertising market will grow by 5-7%.

At the same time, all market participants interviewed by Kommersant agree that the trend will not affect advertising in the press. “The press will most likely continue to fall and may be reduced by 25%, if not more,” Dmitry Vinogradov explains. However, he clarifies, the fall could be cushioned by publishing houses’ digital projects, which “will continue to grow at a solid pace.”

Okkam analysts believe that the downward trend in print media is associated with the closure of sites, including glossy magazines: “A large number of publications either ceased to exist due to the revocation of licenses by foreign companies, or significantly reduced the frequency of publication.” In addition, after the departure of the main foreign advertisers, the remaining ones “prefer to buy advertising from video platforms and large bloggers,” Kommersant’s interlocutors in the industry say.

The Russian Book Chamber reported that the total circulation of newspapers in Russia (the number of copies issued by all existing publications) amounted to more than 3.94 billion, which is 9% less than in 2021 (almost 4.32 billion copies). The circulation of magazines also fell: in 2022, the number of issues decreased by 3.47%, to 41.7 thousand, although a year earlier there was an increase of 6.3% (see Kommersant of February 28).

“Indeed, at the end of 2022, the volume of income in the print press decreased by 41%. The drop in advertising revenues in the press in 2022 was mainly due to the departure of large foreign advertisers,” says Elena Zagranichnaya, co-chairman of the ACAR Publishers Committee, director of press purchases at Rodnaya Rech Group. However, since the fall of 2022, she clarifies, the magazine market has “visibly revived.”

The publishers themselves, contrary to experts’ forecasts, expect advertising revenue growth by the end of 2023. “This is primarily due to the fact that after the shock of the second quarter of 2022, by the autumn we were able to replace the drop in advertising revenue thanks to new contracts,” says the president of the Union of Printing Industry Enterprises (SPPI GIPP) and the CEO of the IM-Media holding (“Secrets of the Stars”, “Oracle”, “Teshin’s Language”, etc.) Alexei Ivanov. According to him, “if you look at absolute numbers, advertising revenue is expected to grow at the level of 5-10% year-on-year.”

Marina Mishunkina, First Deputy General Director of the Arguments and Facts Publishing House, also speaks about the increased interest of advertisers in newspapers: “Among the most significant moments is the return of large banks, which in 2022 almost completely left the coverage press; volumes of the “medicine” segment to the level of pre-pandemic 2019; a significant increase in revenue from grand projects.”

Ms. Mishunkina adds that the main pool of advertisers now is Russian business, income from special projects and activities in the area of ​​government contracts: budgets in these areas are growing significantly, especially in the most covered publications.

Julia Yurasova