The IMF raised its forecast for Russian economic growth in 2024 by 1.5%
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has improved its forecast for economic growth in 2024 to 2.6%. In October, the fund predicted that the Russian economy would grow by only 1.1%. The forecast for 2025 is also slightly improved.
According to the IMF, Russian economic growth at the end of 2023 amounted to 3%. According to UN estimates, the figure was 2.7%. In addition, the organization expects that in 2025 Russia’s GDP growth will be 1.1%.
“The overall picture is definitely that the Russian economy is growing better than we predicted,” stated The foundation’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourincha, during his briefing.
He emphasized that the growth of the Russian economy exceeding expectations was observed by the IMF throughout 2023. The fund’s chief economist believes that the only factor capable of restraining the growth of the Russian economy may be low oil prices. However, even its influence will in any case be extremely limited. “Even if global oil prices fall, this will not necessarily affect Russian oil revenues, which depend on the application and implementation of the oil price ceiling,” believes Pierre-Olivier Gourincha.
According to the IMF forecast, in 2024 the world economy will grow by 3.1%, in 2025 – by 3.2%. In addition, experts from the International Monetary Fund have revised down their forecast for GDP growth in the eurozone; they predict that the GDP of eurozone countries will grow by 0.9% in 2024 and by 1.7% in 2025. At the same time, the fund said that it expects a gradual recovery of the economies of the eurozone countries, growth in real incomes, growth in consumption and a decrease in inflation.
The fund also adjusted its forecast for China’s GDP growth in 2024 upward by 0.4 percentage points (pp) compared to previous findings, to 4.6%. The IMF projects that US GDP will increase by 2.1% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025.
More details in the text “Kommersant” “Slow and nervous”.
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