Growth is promised to tablets – Newspaper Kommersant No. 18 (7463) of 02/01/2023
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By 2027, the volume of the global drug market will reach $1.9 trillion, while the average annual growth rate will slow down and amount to about 3-6%. This forecast is given by analysts of the international consulting company IQVIA. The main reason for the relatively low growth rate of the pharmaceutical market compared to the period of 2020–2022 (up to 9%) is the reduction in the impact of the pandemic on it. As the virus mutates and the disease is more easily tolerated by the sick, the cost of vaccination will decrease. However, it is estimated that spending on COVID-19 vaccines and therapies in 2020-2027 will increase the global pharmaceutical market by $487 billion.
The growth of the drug market in money terms correlates with the dynamics of their use: by 2027, drug consumption will increase to 3.4 trillion daily doses. The average annual growth rate is 1.6%. Most drugs are taken by residents of the Asia-Pacific region (625 billion doses daily), but until 2027 it will grow faster than the rest (by 2.5%). In second place, taking into account both indicators, is India (499 billion doses, 2.4% increase), in third place are the countries of South America (424 billion doses, 2.4% increase). The main reason for the increase in the use of drugs in these countries, according to analysts, will be an increase in the population.
Among the regions with low growth rates of drug consumption are North America (255 billion doses, 0.1%), Japan (125 billion, 0.4%), Eastern (378 billion, 0.5%) and Western Europe (412 billion doses, 0.4%). Low growth rates in the last two regions are caused, among other things, by a reduction in household incomes amid high inflation due to the conflict in Ukraine and restrictions on the import of energy resources from Russia.
Oncology will remain the leading area by type of disease by 2027, the cost of treating relevant diseases will reach $370 billion thanks to the emergence of new methods of treatment. Autoimmune diseases are in second place with a projected volume of expenses for their treatment of $177 billion, and diabetes is in third, $168 billion. Among the areas of medicine that will grow faster than others (except for oncology with an annual increase of 13-16%) are the treatment of obesity (up 10-13%), lowering cholesterol and treating colds (up 5-8% in both cases) .
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