Year of retail lending – Kommersant

The consumer lending market has recovered after the failure of 2022, and some of its segments in 2023 will show results comparable to the results of the record 2021, VTB is sure. The bank is betting on mortgages and car loans. However, experts are not sure that even these segments have fully recovered after 2022. Effective demand for mortgages is satisfied and will inevitably decline, even despite the stagnation of real estate prices, and there is still a risk of shortage in the car market and the process of market transition to new brands has not yet been completed.

The results of the first half of the year, and indeed the entire 2023, may become a record in terms of issuing mortgage and car loans, Anatoly Pechatnikov, Deputy Chairman of the Management Board of VTB, expressed confidence. According to him, in the first half of the year, the issuance of mortgages will amount to 2.76 trillion rubles, and the mortgage portfolio may reach 16.59 trillion rubles. This is 46% and 5%, respectively, higher than in the first half of the crisis year of 2022. But it is also higher than the record-breaking 2021 by 2% and 9.5%, respectively. The bank itself expects to issue mortgage loans for 536 billion rubles in the first six months of this year, which is 24% more than a year earlier and 4% more than in the same period of 2021. And at the end of the year, the figure may reach 1.1 trillion rubles.

According to Frank RG forecasts, by the end of 2023, the volume of mortgage loans issued may reach 5.8 trillion rubles.

The market will continue to be supported by state programs, Frank RG experts are sure, the stagnation of real estate prices may become an additional incentive. And the average size of a mortgage loan in VTB Bank is declining, Anatoly Pechatnikov confirms: “In the first quarter, the average size of a mortgage in a bank decreased by 6%, to 5 million rubles. Such dynamics is due, among other things, to a decrease in the cost per square meter in the primary real estate market due to the departure from near-zero mortgages,” he notes.

However, not all experts share the bank’s optimism. In the mortgage segment, a decrease in effective demand is likely and, as a result, a slowdown in the dynamics of issuance, estimates Yuri Belikov, Managing Director for Validation at Expert RA. “Inflated housing prices, which are not yet amenable to sustainable adjustment, the regulator’s opposition to mortgage programs from developers at near-zero rates with an even higher cost of objects, a high degree of satisfaction of solvent demand, adjustment of the conditions of preferential programs,” the expert lists the factors that will slow down mortgage market.

In the car lending segment, recovery is more likely given the active steps to change the structure of imports by car brands, Mr. Belikov believes. VTB also expects outpacing growth in this area, although this particular market segment turned out to be most affected in 2022 amid a shortage in the car market. In the first quarter of 2023, VTB issued 18.2 thousand car loans for 22 billion rubles. This is one and a half times higher than the results of the same period last year.

According to Mr. Pechatnikov’s forecasts, the car loan market in Russia will recover in 2023 to 1.1 trillion rubles, which corresponds to the level of 2021.

The shortage problem is no longer acute in the market, he said. At the same time, up to 90% of car sales in the Russian market according to the results of the first quarter fall on the used car segment. “Of course, there is a risk of the fleet becoming obsolete within the country, but if the current pace of deliveries of new cars to the market is maintained, this risk is insignificant. According to VTB forecast, 780,000 new cars will be sold on the market in 2023, which is 25% more than in 2022. As for sales of used cars, 5.6 million units can be sold in 2023, an increase of 15%,” Anatoly Pechatnikov estimates.

However, such a positive scenario in the car loan market is possible only if preferential lending programs for the new car segment are resumed, the Russian market is filled with Chinese brands and the production of domestic brands reaches the planned levels, and the cycle of lowering the key rate continues, project leader Frank notes. RG Stanislav Sukhov. However, even with such a scenario, the market recovery to the indicators of 2021 should not be expected until 2024, he is cautious.

Polina Trifonova