Wholesale fuel prices in Russia continue to rise

Wholesale fuel prices in Russia continue to grow. So, AI-95 again updated its price historical maximum, and AI-92 rose to a maximum since October last year. The exchange cost of fuel continues to rise due to lack of supply, as well as government plans to reduce the damper. In addition, oil companies have not yet had time to fully restore production after the repair campaign, while gasoline exports in May were higher than last year.

Gasoline AI-92 and AI-95 went up on June 7 at SPIMEX by 1.2% and 0.8%, up to 55 thousand and 62.3 thousand rubles. per ton, respectively. The cost of AI-95 has again updated the absolute record value, while AI-92 is trading at the maximum level since October 2021. Gasoline also rose in price at gas stations: according to Rosstat, the average retail price increased by 0.3% over the week. However, the overall increase in the price of gasoline since the beginning of the year is still less than the level of cumulative inflation (1.2% vs. 2.5%).

Last year, under the sanctions, oil companies solved problems with the export of petroleum products, which was declining due to the refusal of traders to purchase Russian goods. The result was a decline in gasoline prices for almost the entire past year in a surplus. But the oilmen coped with the problems with exports, despite the price ceiling for petroleum products and the EU embargo. At the same time, they receive damper compensation for deliveries to the domestic market, but this year the government is reducing these payments.

Kommersant’s interlocutors in the industry link the continuing rise in prices to several factors. So, according to two interlocutors of Kommersant, gasoline is becoming more expensive on the stock exchange due to insufficient supply.

According to one of them, high-octane AI-95 has been consumed more in recent years instead of AI-92, but production is not able to fully satisfy the increased demand. In addition, oil companies this year in May-June carry out more serious and lengthy repairs at refineries, which led to a reduction in output against the backdrop of a seasonal increase in demand. At the same time, the decrease in damper payments stimulates companies to increase exports. The government plans to cut the damper again from September.

The trend towards a significant increase in gasoline exports has been outlined since October last year. A month earlier, the government once again reduced damper payments for oil companies. The export of gasoline by rail reached its maximum value in January, according to Kommersant, it amounted to 26 thousand tons per day, an increase of 46% compared to the same month last year. In April and May this year, the export of all gasoline was 17-19 thousand tons per day, even despite the repair campaign.

At the end of May, the topic of limiting fuel exports commented Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov. Then he rejected the idea of ​​​​a complete ban on exports: “The Department of Energy gives recommendations to companies on increasing supply and on restrictions – on a decrease, but not on a ban.” At the same time, the ministry regularly requires oil companies to increase their supply on the stock exchange.

Fuel market expert Mikhail Turukalov notes that the reduction of the damper in September 2022 and in April of this year led to a decrease in the attractiveness of supplies to the domestic market. At the same time, oil companies systematically increased the export of gasoline, as a result of which the surplus that formed last year completely disappeared.

Dmitry Kozlov